I discussed this one heavily on the DKN Daily Bets Podcast on Tuesday, and then pounced on the opening line on Wednesday. While it’s ticked up a bit off the opener, I was ready to bet and over on anything that came out less than 70 yards for James Conner’s rushing prop on Sunday, and would still play it up to that number.
Conner only managed 39 rushing yards on 12 carries against the Saints in Week 1, getting about 60% of the carries over Trey Benson. While Benson managed more with his touches (8-69-0), it’s just a one week sample, and Conner should still be operating as RB1 for the Cards. In Week 2, Arizona returns home as roughly a touchdown favorite over a Carolina run defense that’s been garbage for quite some time now. If Week 1 was any indicator, nothing has changed there.
The Panthers got shredded for 200 yards on the ground by the Jaguars in Week 1, led by 143 rushing yards on 16 carries from Travis Etienne. Getting gashed on the ground was no fluke by Carolina on defense — it ranked dead last against the run in 2024, giving up nearly 180 yards per game. The run defense by the Panthers got worse as the season went on, allowing over 211 yards over the final three games of the season. Carolina can’t look much worse than it did last week, but it also isn’t going to all of the sudden figure out how to fix this long-term issue of stopping the run.
I trust Conner to make much more of his opportunity this week in a terrific spot. Look for a big game on the ground here, particularly if game script holds.
NFL Pick: James Conner OVER 60.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 1.5-units
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