It’s been a brutal week for the Mets. On top of losing three straight games, the team now finds itself in a battle with the Giants for the National League’s final wildcard spot. New York will attempt to make up some ground tonight, but it won’t be easy. The NL East-leading Phillies have their eyes set on home-field advantage throughout the playoffs A four-game sweep of their hated rivals would go a long way towards making that happen. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s meeting between the Mets and the Phillies.
Philadelphia is favored (-132) over New York, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Mets vs. Phillies prediction, preview
If the Mets are going to earn a road victory tonight, it’ll take a solid start from David Peterson. Unfortunately from New York, those have been less common in recent weeks. Since August 6th, the southpaw has recorded a lackluster 7.42 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. Most concerning has been the All-Star’s sudden loss of command, posting an 11.0% walk rate during that time. That could spell trouble against a Phillies offense averaging the league’s tenth-most free passes per game (3.27). During Peterson’s most recent outing in Philadelphia, on June 22nd, he coughed up five runs in 4.1 innings.
This is an ideal matchup for Philadelphia’s lineup on a number of levels, beyond just Peterson’s recent struggles. Only the Dodgers (5.61) average more runs per game at home (5.42). In addition, the Phillies own the league’s eighth-highest batting average (.251) and OPS (.736) against left-handed pitching. Seven different regulars in this lineup own a wRC+ of 100 or greater. They’re headlined by the dynamic duo of Kyle Schwarber (153 wRC+) and Bryce Harper (132 wRC+).
On the bump for the home team will be Jesus Luzardo. The former All-Star’s season has been a roller coaster, alternating between quality and chaotic starts. Through 161.2 innings of work, he’s notched a 4.01 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 190 strikeouts. However, he’s enjoyed notable success in this spot. Over ten career meetings with New York, the southpaw owns a 3.09 ERA. It helps that the Mets have only scored 18 runs over their previous seven games; this offense is slumping. Given how good this Phillies lineup is, Luzardo just needs to keep things from getting out of hand tonight.
Mets vs. Phillies pick, best bet
Best Bet: Phillies ML (-132)
Losers in five of their last six games, the Mets have been on a decline for most of the second half. Trusting them at this point against a playoff-bound club is borderline impossible. Luzardo’s bi-polar pitching is cause for concern, but the same can easily be said for Peterson. Although -1.5 (+153) is tempting, I’ll play it safe and back Philadelphia on the moneyline tonight.
