The NFL season is here, and there are some great games on the Week 2 slate. This is a look at my best bets for NFL Week 2. You can place all of these bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 2 Best Bets
Atlanta Falcons +3.5 at Minnesota Vikings
There would be a much different narrative heading into this game if a couple of plays had gone differently in Week 1. The Falcons had multiple dropped interceptions, a failed fourth-down conversion at midfield and a missed field goal to send the game to overtime in Week 1 against Tampa Bay. However, because they lost the game, none of that matters to the betting public. Meanwhile, Minnesota played terrible football for three quarters before J.J. McCarthy found a late groove and the Chicago defense stalled out. The Vikings are 3.5-point favorites in this game, but Atlanta has a few edges in this game. Last week, it ranked 16th in offensive EPA/play, while Minnesota ranked 25th. Michael Penix Jr. ranked 11th in EPA+CPOE composite, while McCarthy ranked 19th. Defensively, both teams ranked within the top six in success rate. Atlanta has the more explosive offense and defenders who can make life hard for McCarthy. This should be a tight game, and the Falcons have a great chance to win outright.
Houston Texans -2.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
While the Falcons should be due for some positive regression this week, the Buccaneers could be going the other direction. The Tampa Bay offense did not look the same without Liam Coen calling plays and some of its other missing pieces. Tristan Wirfs, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan all missed the opener and are expected to miss this game as well. Baker Mayfield ranked fifth in success rate among eligible quarterbacks last season, but ranks 24th after Week 1 of this season. This offense might take some time to get back to the level it was at last season, and this will be a tough test against an elite Houston defense. They ranked 10th in defensive EPA/play last week, after ranking sixth in that metric last season. Houston’s offense didn’t play great in Week 1, but it should be much better at home, as C.J. Stroud has been throughout his career. Tampa Bay ranked 24th in defensive EPA/dropback last week, so Stroud should be able to attack the secondary and get a win this week.
Six-Point Teaser: Indianapolis Colts +7.5 & Kansas City Chiefs +7.5
My favorite teaser this week is the Colts and Chiefs both being teased from +1.5 to +7.5. This takes two coin flip games and moves the team I expect to win both games to underdogs of over a touchdown. The Colts looked fantastic in Week 1, getting a blowout win over the Dolphins. Daniel Jones ranked third among all NFL quarterbacks in success rate and moved the ball efficiently with his arm and his legs. The Colts ranked sixth in offensive EPA/play and second in defensive EPA/play, grading out as the best team in the NFL through one game. The Broncos struggled in their Week 1 win over the Titans. Their offense looked lackluster, and the Colts should keep it within a touchdown at the very least.
The Chiefs and Eagles are facing off in a Super Bowl 59 rematch in Kansas City. The Chiefs are unbelievable at home in the Andy Reid era. Reid is 84-28 (75%) SU at home since 2013, the best mark of any team in the NFL over that stretch. Things have only gotten better since Patrick Mahomes came into the picture. Since 2020, that win percentage has grown to over 80% at home. The Chiefs and Mahomes will want revenge for their Super Bowl loss, so this should be a tight game. The Chiefs have not lost a home game by more than a touchdown since October 2021 against the Bills. That trend should continue, with this game likely to go down to the wire.
CeeDee Lamb 80+ Receiving Yards (-107)
CeeDee Lamb picked up where he left off last season with a great Week 1 performance. The Eagles have one of the best secondaries in football, but Lamb still managed to go for 110 yards against them. He will be facing a much weaker secondary this week against the Giants. New York has some high-level pieces like Brian Burns, Abdul Carter and Dexter Lawrence on the defensive line, but that should only lead to a higher passing play percentage from the Cowboys. Dak Prescott threw the ball 34 times last week, and it should be more of the same in this game. The Giants rank 23rd in defensive EPA/play after last week, while the Cowboys rank 13th in offensive EPA/play. In the Giants game that Prescott quarterbacked last season, Lamb had 98 receiving yards. He averages 85.9 receiving yards per game in his career against the Giants, so he should get over 80 yards again in this matchup.
