Last season, the NFC North ran through the Detroit Lions, and the Green Bay Packers, despite being a solid playoff team, finished a distant third in the division. In Week 1, they demonstrated that they’re ready to take the next step, routing the Lions 27-13. In that game, running back Josh Jacobs had a relatively quiet game, finishing with 19 carries, 66 yards and a score.
Green Bay will now get the chance to show off its improved core in prime time when it faces the Washington Commanders tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET in a Monday Night Football clash.
The Packers are three-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 48.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around Jacobs.
Best Josh Jacobs Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Josh Jacobs 80+ Rushing Yards (+100)
Though Jacobs was fairly inefficient in Week 1 against a relatively strong Detroit defense, that shouldn’t be considered the norm, given that he averaged 4.4 yards per carry last season. He should have every opportunity to bounce back against the Commanders, who finished with the fourth-worst run defense grade in football in 2024 and lack top-level run-defending playmakers besides ageless linebacker Bobby Wagner. Washington conceded 4.8 yards per carry last season, the third-most in football.
I’m not convinced that an elite run-defending performance against the New York Giants is sustainable, given that most of the Commanders’ defenders have been below-average in that aspect for most of their careers. Though Washington held the Giants to just 3.2 yards per carry last week, a lot of that came down to Russell Wilson’s struggles: the veteran quarterback completed just 17 of his 37 passes for 168 yards. Presumably, Jordan Love should be able to stretch the Commanders’ defense more than Wilson was able to, opening up more lanes for Jacobs than Tyrone Tracy Jr. got. Jacobs also has a much better track record overall than Tracy.
The risk is that the high-powered Washington offense puts up enough points that Love is forced to throw, but the sheer presence of Micah Parsons should make that unlikely. Parsons played just 45% of Green Bay’s defensive snaps in Week 1 but amassed two pressures and a sack and should be back on a more normal load now that he’s had time to recover from his back injury and is more acquainted with his new teammates.
Josh Jacobs 1st GB Packers TD Scorer (+185)
It became clear in the season opener that Jacobs is an integral part of the Packers’ plans inside the red zone, as he took five of his team’s seven rushing attempts within the 20-yard line, the highest rate among players whose team managed to attempt as many runs within the opponent’s 20. Though he wasn’t Green Bay’s first touchdown scorer in Week 1, tight end Tucker Kraft just isn’t as important to the team’s offense and shouldn’t be expected to find paydirt first in future weeks.
Jacobs has had quite the nose for the end zone throughout his career, finishing with double-digit touchdowns in three of his six seasons and recording at least six in each of the others. 2024 was his most prolific season, crossing the goal line 15 times in the ground and once more in the air. Including the postseason, he scored the Packers’ first touchdown of the game in six of the season’s last seven games. Green Bay only got better on both sides of the ball during the offseason, which should give him more opportunities to find the end zone.
There should also be plenty of touchdowns to go around. Last season, the Commanders allowed 16 touchdowns to running backs, tied for the fifth-most in the league.
