Based on my preliminary research for game picks, here are my three favorite baseball bets for tonight’s slate, separate from our game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Pirates vs. Orioles u3.5 total runs F5 (-105)
Paul Skenes has been a revelation in 2025, pitching to a 1.98 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 195 strikeouts over 173 innings. The Pirates’ 23-year-old ace has allowed more than two earned runs only five times in 29 outings, suffocating opponents start after start. Baltimore’s lineup is limping into this matchup, scoring just 141 total runs since August 1, the fourth-fewest in baseball. Adley Rutschman and Jordan Westburg are sidelined, leaving a group of youngsters to try to solve a pitcher they’re overmatched against. At home they usually score closer to 4.7 per game, but Skenes is not a normal road opponent.
Pittsburgh’s bats can’t be trusted either. This is the worst scoring offense in the league, with only three hitters posting a wRC+ above 100. Tyler Wells looked sharp in his return from surgery, giving up just two runs in five innings against San Diego last week, and he should carve through Pittsburgh’s punchless order. Both pitchers have the matchup advantages, and both lineups come in scuffling. With Skenes likely dealing zeros and Wells good enough to keep Pittsburgh quiet, the early innings project as a scoreless grind.
This game sets up as one of the cleanest first-five unders on the slate. Runs will be scarce, and the arms dictate the pace. Back under 3.5 runs through five innings.
Shohei Ohtani o1.5 total bases (-130)
Shohei Ohtani has been an unstoppable force in the Dodgers lineup and now draws Kyle Freeland, a dream matchup. Ohtani is 6-for-8 with two homers off Freeland in his career, and this season he’s hitting .282 against lefties. He’s also eclipsed this total bases line in two of his last three games, including a multi-homer performance, proof he’s locked in at the plate. His 95th-percentile exit velocity means every mistake has damage written on it.
Freeland has been battered in 2025, sitting at 4-14 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He’s consistently allowed loud contact, and Ohtani is the worst possible matchup for a struggling southpaw. Dodger Stadium may mute offense for some, but Ohtani’s power is park-proof. He can clear this number with a double into the gap or a single and a walk-off blast.
The way Freeland is missing his spots and Ohtani is barreling baseballs, this play is too strong to pass up. Expect at least two quality swings to find grass or seats. Over 1.5 total bases is the move.
Lame juice, I know. But the value is too good.
Jack Flaherty o5.5 total strikeouts (-145)
Jack Flaherty’s 7-13 record and 4.85 ERA hide how strong his 2025 campaign has been. His xERA sits at 4.10, and his FIP at 3.97, showing he’s pitched better than the surface numbers suggest. Against playoff-level opponents, he’s actually raised his game, posting a 2.31 ERA in 62⅓ innings. In those games he’s punched out hitters in bunches, recording 171 strikeouts across 146 innings overall. That’s well over a strikeout per inning, and he’s cashed this line in 17 of 28 starts.
The Yankees strike out at the eighth-highest clip in baseball, and Flaherty has already shown he can take advantage. He struck out nine Yankees earlier this season and has a strong track record against their swing-happy lineup. His fastball-slider combo is designed to rack up whiffs, and his K-BB% sits north of 12 percent.
Detroit will lean on him to set the tone, and his advanced strikeout metrics back it up. Over 5.5 is the sharp side, with a projection closer to seven punchouts. Flaherty should mow down enough Yankees to deliver this over.
