Typically, a game between last place clubs doesn’t offer much intrigue. That isn’t the case when Paul Skenes steps on the mound. It’s been a phenomenal season for Pittsburgh’s ace, who will look to bolster his Cy Young candidacy tonight. That won’t be so easy against an Orioles lineup stocked with young talent. Can Baltimore take down baseball’s most dominant pitcher at Camden Yards? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s battle between the Pirates and the Orioles.
Pittsburgh is favored (-158) over Baltimore, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.
Pirates vs. Orioles prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, Skenes has emerged as arguably the best pitcher in all of baseball this season. Following last year’s dominant rookie campaign, the right-hander has taken things up a notch in 2025. Over 173.0 innings of work, he’s notched a 1.98 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 195 strikeouts. Despite a criminal lack of run support for the two-time All-Star, Pittsburgh has a 16-13 record when he pitches. Skenes has surrendered more than two runs in just five of his 29 outings thus far.
Facing an ace is never easy, let alone a generational talent. The odds are stacked against this Orioles lineup, especially given their recent play. Since August 1st, Baltimore has scored just 141 runs, the fourth-lowest total in baseball. Several big names on this roster are sidelined, including Adley Rutschman (oblique) and Jordan Westburg (ankle). With that being said, the O’s are averaging the tenth-most runs per game at home (4.68).
It’s not as if Baltimore will be facing an elite group of hitters tonight. The Pirates come into Wednesday as the league’s lowest-scoring offense. Only three hitters in this Pittsburgh lineup have recorded a wRC+ of 100 or greater. It’ll be Orioles starter Tyler Wells on the mound tonight, making his second start of the year. It’s been a long road back to the majors for the veteran, who underwent season-ending UCL surgery in 2024. During his debut last week, the 31-year-old tossed five innings of two-run ball vs. San Diego. A similar, if not better, performance at home could be in store for the flyball specialist.
Pirates vs. Orioles pick, best bet
Best Bet: Pirates vs. Orioles under 3.5 total runs – 1st 5 innings (-105)
Neither of these lineups deserve the benefit of the doubt. That’s especially true for Baltimore with Skenes on the bump. Still, I’m not comfortable supporting the Pirates as such heavy favorites. Instead, I’d rather bank on Wells’ ability to shut down Pittsburgh’s bats. Assuming Skenes is dominant once again, runs should be at a premium tonight.
