We’re through two weeks of the college football season, and have a solid Week 3 card on deck. My record so far sits at 12-10 for -2.04 units, so let’s look to get going here this weekend. This article will be the home for all of my plays in Week 3, but our team at DK Network will have breakdowns on nearly every game on the board. Here are my bets for Week 3, which I’ll add to throughout the week, along with the spark notes of the handicap.
Houston -4.5 (-110) 1-unit (Friday): Colorado is always going to be a team the public enjoys backing, but I have many questions. Georgia Tech played awful in Week 1 on the road, and was still able to go to Colorado and win by a touchdown. I don’t trust the Buffs on defense, and there are lots of questions about who will be taking the snaps at quarterback in this game. Without the elite playmakers Colorado had to bail the team out many times over the past couple of seasons, I think we should see some struggles on the road in a Friday night ESPN game. Meanwhile, Houston has looked very good so far. The Cougars haven’t played any top competition, but have rolled the teams they’ve played with relative ease — 27-0 vs. SF Austin and 35-9 on the road at Rice. Conner Weigman failed at Texas A&M, but fits well under center with the Cougs. Houston has also run the ball well to start the season, and the defense has given up nine total points. I think Houston steps up at home in its first big game of the season.
Arizona +1.5 (-105) 1-unit (Friday): After leaning strong to Arizona early in the week, I decided to jump on this one now that the Wildcats are underdogs. Some sharp money came in on Kansas State in the short underdog role to flip the spread, but I disagree with the move. I understand buying low on KSU — I’m doing the same thing with some other teams. But with three games in the books, I think there’s a chance we’ve seen enough to determine this team just isn’t going to live up to expectations this season. K-State made plenty of mistakes against Iowa State in the loss in Ireland, came home and looked flat in a gross 38-35 win against North Dakota, and then lost at home to Army last week. At what point do we just admit this team isn’t very good? Now in a season that’s already seen KSU play a lot of football and make a long trip overseas in a short amount of time, K-State has to make the trip on a short week to play a Friday night road game in Arizona. KSU is also dealing with some key injuries in this one, setting up a nice spot for Arizona. Zona has only faced Hawaii and Weber State, but the results have been positive, winning those games by a combined score of 88-9. I think Noah Fifita and company will be ready to go for a big nationally televised home game and put up some points on a struggling Kansas State squad.
Clemson -3 (-110) 1.5-units: We’ve watched this line drop, and drop, and drop some more. Now laying just a field goal, I’ll take the bait with Clemson on the road. Yes, the first half against Troy was ugly, but it was a lookahead spot to this ACC opener on the road, and the Tigers ultimately got the job done in the second half. While the offense struggled against LSU, the defense did a tremendous job of limiting one of the best offenses in the country. Haynes King didn’t look particularly sharp in the win over Colorado, with a lot of early turnovers. He sat out last week, and could be a little dinged up still for this game, and leg/foot injuries have nagged him throughout his career. I like Clemson to step up to the challenge and play its best game of the young season in what should turn out to be a huge game in the ACC standings. I’m going to trust the Tigers to get after the quarterback and cause some turnovers in this one. The offense just has to be good enough. The price has dipped to much for me not to buy low on a team I believed in preseason.
Oregon Team Total OVER 38.5 (-110) 1-unit: I was somewhat down on the Ducks entering the season given what they lost, and the preseason market agreed. Looks like we might’ve been wrong. While Oregon hasn’t played anyone (with all due respect to Montana State and Oklahoma State), the offense has been clicking at an elite level. The Ducks dropped 59 in the opener and followed it up with 69 points last week, and you could argue that Dan Lanning is even taking his foot off the gas late, as just seven of those 128 points have come in the fourth quarter. Now Oregon goes on the road to begin conference play, and I see no reason to let up in this spot. Northwestern is more respectable on defense than any opponent the Ducks have faced yet, but 38.5 is a low bar to clear given what we’ve seen so far. As growing 28-point favorites, I like Oregon to continue its video game like production on offense.
Georgia -3.5 (-108) 3-units: This is my favorite spot of the week and largest bet of the season to date. The preseason line on this game was 6.5, and at one point it moved north of a touchdown. Now, thanks to a hot start from Tennessee, we have a buy-low spot on Georgia, who hasn’t done anything to make me believe it still isn’t one of the best teams in the country. The market is buying into the Vols here, who hung 45 on Syracuse and then 72 on East Tennessee State. That said, now Joey Aguilar is going to be facing an elite SEC defense, which I expect to cause some issues. Georgia is 0-2 ATS so far this season, but Kirby Smart tends to just keep things on cruise control until it matters — and the SEC opener at Tennessee indeed matters. I like the Bulldogs to make life very difficult on the former App State quarterback, and the Vols to take a massive step back on offense. Meanwhile, Tennessee did give up 26 points to a bad Syracuse team, and will be missing both starting cornerbacks for this game, among other injuries. Give me Smart to open up the playbook here and find success with Gunner Stockton and the offense. Unlike the market, I see no reason for this game to have moved off 6.5, and like Georgia to win convincingly.
Southern Miss +2.5 (-112) 1-unit: Southern Miss is a team I’ve been high on since the preseason, and although the Golden Eagles didn’t get us the cover in Week 1 against Mississippi State, they hung around in the game. By the looks of things, Miss State might be better than the market indicated, and I like that Southern Miss has a game against SEC competition under its belt to sharpen up early in the season. App State got an impressive road win against Charlotte in Week 1, but was very underwhelming last week in a 20-13 win over Lindenwood. Southern Miss put up 38 points in a dominant win over Jackson State, and I believe the Golden Eagles should be able to score in this one. Big home game for Southern Miss here, and I feel the wrong team is favored.
Texas A&M at Notre Dame UNDER 49.5 (-108) 1-unit: I’ve been eyeballing this total, and am curious where it moves as the week goes on. I’m comfortable playing the under at the current number of 49.5, though, so putting it out here on Wednesday. We saw the Irish cash the under (on most numbers) in its opener down in Miami, and the Hurricanes made some tremendous plays in the passing game. ND is very solid on defense, arguably among the best in the country at all levels. Now they’ve had a bye week off a loss to prepare for a Saturday night home game, and I believe will be prepared to slow down the Aggies. Texas A&M has scored over 40 points per game thus far against Utah State and UTSA, but this is obviously a different animal. Offensively, expect Notre Dame to establish the run, with elite offensive line play and one of the most experience running back rooms in the country. CJ Carr made some plays late against Miami, and proved capable, but the backbone of this team should be the running game, and A&M has a solid defense of its own. The Irish won this game at Kyle Field last season 23-13, and while we might see a few more points this time around, I still expect the game to be played towards the under.
South Carolina -3 (-110) 1-unit: The love for Vanderbilt has become too much for me, as of Friday afternoon. Money continues to pile on the Commodores, now leaving the Gamecocks as a short home favorite. Sure, Vandy is seeking revenge in this game for past seasons, but there’s a reason South Carolina has won 16 consecutive meetings in this matchup. I was down on SC preseason, and the market moved heavily towards and under on the win total. Virginia Tech also got a lot of love in Week 1, and failed to cover, despite being right in the game. Despite the drop off on the defensive side of the ball I feel the Gamecocks might struggle with, at some point the number gets too low here, and I feel we’ve gotten there. This is still an offense with some explosiveness to it, as long as LaNorris Sellers is under center. SC dominated this one on the road last season, 28-7, and gave Diego Pavia a lot of trouble. Just because Vandy seeks revenge, doesn’t mean they can go on the road here and get it. Give me the Gamecocks at a discount.
Duke +2 (-110) 1-unit: Illinois came into Duke as the most public play on the board last week, while sharp money still managed to bring the number on Duke down leading up to kick. Ultimately, the public won that one, as the Blue Devils game themselves no shot with five turnovers. I expect Duke to be locked in off the home loss to a ranked team, and there’s a good motivational angle for the Blue Devils in this one. Former Tulane quarterback, Darian Mensah, will travel to his old stomping ground to take on a program he’s not on good terms with. Long story short, Mensah was not given the NIL money he believed he deserved and the two parted ways. No better way to get back at them then going into Tulane on Saturday night and pulling out a win. The Green Wave gave up 31 points to South Alabama last week, so I’m expecting Duke to clean up the mistakes and hang a big number to prove a point.
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