This is the second contest of a three-game series in Atlanta between the Braves and visiting Chicago Cubs.
Cade Horton is scheduled to pitch for Chicago while Spencer Strider is slated to start for Atlanta.
Cubs at Braves prediction, preview
Cade Horton has pitched 103.2 innings during his rookie season—and they’ve been very, very good, especially considering the context. Sure, the strikeout rate has dropped from the 28–30% range he posted in the minors to 20.6% in the majors, but the walk rate is a manageable 7.6%, and he’s allowed only nine home runs. The swinging strike rate is 11.6%, and the chase rate is 29.4%. His ERA sits at an impressive 2.78, though the FIP is notably higher at 3.69. He’s benefitting from a .267 BABIP and a 78.1% strand rate. The barrel rate is 10.4%, and the hard-hit rate is 41.1%.
Horton has been slightly better against righties, but the numbers are pretty close. He’s essentially been site neutral.
In 19 starts, Horton has allowed more than three earned runs just three times and has gone at least six innings in four of them. He faced Atlanta in his last outing, tossing five no-hit innings with one walk and six strikeouts, allowing no earned runs.
Against right-handed pitching, the Braves rank ninth in strikeout rate and 24th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 19th in MLB.
Spencer Strider has returned from injury and logged 101.1 innings this season. His fastball velocity is down to 95.5 mph after previously sitting in the 97–98 mph range. The strikeout rate has dipped to 24.2%, while the walk rate is at 9.4%—not too surprising given he’s coming back from injury. He’s allowed 18 home runs, and his 4.97 ERA is supported by a 4.78 FIP. Strider is still missing bats with a 13.6% swinging strike rate and a 29.3% chase rate, but he’s getting hit hard. The average exit velocity against him is 91.7 mph, with a 10.6% barrel rate and 43.7% hard-hit rate.
Eleven of the 18 home runs have come at home. His K-BB% is only 12% against lefties. While his K-BB% is 9.8% higher at home, his HR/9 there is an elevated 2.03.
In 19 starts, Strider has allowed more than three earned runs five times and gone at least six innings in eight of them. He faced the Cubs in his last outing, going five innings, walking three, and striking out just one while giving up three earned runs on five hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Cubs have the 27th-highest strikeout rate, the sixth-best ISO, and rank eighth in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Chicago ranks fourth in FIP, while Atlanta ranks 28th.
Cubs at Braves pick, best bet
It’s weird to write this but I like Horton better than Strider in this one. In addition, there’s a huge discrepancy between the bullpens.
