This is the opener of a three-game series in Los Angeles between the Dodgers and visiting Colorado Rockies.
Chase Dollander is scheduled to pitch for Washington, while Tyler Glasnow is slated to start for Los Angeles.
Rockies at Dodgers prediction, preview
Chase Dollander averages 98 mph on the fastball, and… that’s about it. His ERA is 6.77, the strikeout rate is only 18.2%, and the walk rate is 11.1%. He’s allowed 18 home runs in 93 innings. The FIP is slightly better at 5.68, due in part to a low strand rate of 61.3%. The barrel rate is 11.9%, and the hard-hit rate is 40.1%. While the swinging strike rate is 10%, the chase rate is just 22.2%.
Twelve of the 18 home runs have come off the bats of lefties, and 12 have been surrendered at Coors Field—unsurprisingly. The K-BB% is a microscopic 2.2% against lefties, with a 6.75 FIP. At home, the K-BB% is only 4.4%, and the FIP is 6.90.
In 20 starts, Dollander has allowed more than three earned runs nine times. He’s gone at least six innings just four times. He has faced the Dodgers twice. The first meeting was in late June at home, where he went 5.2 innings, walked two, and struck out one while allowing three earned runs on three hits. The most recent outing was three starts ago, again at home. Dollander lasted only 3.2 innings, walked two, and struck out five while getting shelled for seven earned runs on nine hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Dodgers rank 15th in strikeout rate, fourth in ISO, and fifth in MLB in wOBA.
Tyler Glasnow has pitched only 68.2 innings this season due to injury—shocking! The fastball is down a tick to 95.8 mph from 97 mph a few seasons ago. His ERA is 3.41, but the FIP is higher at 4.16. The BABIP is just .221, while the strand rate is 79.7%. The strikeout rate remains an impressive 29%, but the walk rate is 11.5%. His swinging strike rate is 11.1%, and the chase rate is just 23.9%. He’s allowed 10 home runs.
Eight of the 10 home runs have been given up at home. The K-BB% is only 10.8% against lefties but jumps to 24.3% against righties. On the road, the K-BB% is a laughable 1.1%, compared to a robust 25% at home. While his HR/9 at home is 1.45, his FIP there is still 3.70.
Glasnow made five starts before being shut down and has made nine starts since returning to action in July. Over that span, he has allowed more than three earned runs just once. He’s gone at least six innings in four of those starts. This will be his first time facing Colorado this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Nationals have the fourth-highest strikeout rate, the 27th-best ISO, and rank 26th in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Colorado ranks 29th in FIP, while Los Angeles ranks 16th.
Rockies at Dodgers pick, best bet
Glasnow can lose control from time to time, but the stuff is still electric and I have little faith that the Rockies on the road can take advantage of any mistakes. On the flip side, Rockies pitching isn’t good. The only question is how many runs will the Dodgers score?
