This is the opener of a three-game series in Los Angeles between the Angels and visiting Minnesota Twins.
Simeon Woods Richardson is scheduled to pitch for Minnesota, while Caden Dana is slated to start for Los Angeles.
Twins at Angels prediction, preview
Simeon Woods Richardson is 24 years old and this is essentially his second season in MLB. I’m not counting the five and 4.2 innings he pitched in 2022 and 2023. As with most young pitchers, control has been an issue. Last season, the walk rate was 8.4%. It’s at 10.3% this season. The strikeout rate is 20.1%. SWR averages 93.3 mph on the fastball and is posting a 4.53 ERA with a 5.13 FIP in 89.1 innings. The average exit velocity is 90 mph, barrel rate is 11.6% and hard hit rate is 42.5%.
10 of the 16 home runs allowed have come on the road. The K-BB% is 12.3% against righties and only 7.1% against lefties. The FIP is still 4.98 against righties and 5.31 against lefties. At home, the K-BB% is 7.4% higher while the FIP is 3.98, compared to 6.6 on the road.
In 18 starts, SWR has allowed more than three earned runs four times and gone at least six innings only once. He faced the Angels back in late-April, going 5.1 innings without issuing a walk, striking out seven and allowing one earned run on four hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Angels rank first in strikeout rate and 11th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 25th in MLB.
Caden Dana was moved through the minor league system quickly because…well, the Angels are the Angels. Things did not go well in his first 10.1 MLB innings, unsurprisingly. There were issues with control and hard contact. In 82 Triple-A innings, the BB/9 was 5.05! In 11 MLB innings this season, the BB/9 is 4.91! The strikeout rate is 21.3% and he’s allowed two home runs. The ERA is 4.91 while the FIP is 5.6, as the BABIP is only .250. The average exit velocity is 91.9 mph and the hard hit rate is 40%, but at least the barrel rate is only 6.7%. The swinging strike rate is 8.4% while the chase rate is a laughable 18.8%. That said, six of those innings came early in the season when he made two appearances of three innings each. After spending most of the season in Triple-A, Dana was promoted last week and went five innings, walked one and struck out four while allowing one earned run on two hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Twins have the 18th-highest strikeout rate, the 24th-best ISO, and rank 22nd in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Minnesota ranks 22nd in FIP, while Los Angeles ranks 21st.
Twins at Angels pick, best bet
I feel confident that SWR will get lit up. With Dana, I’m not so sure. Both bullpens aren’t great, but a 9.5 total is a big number. I am not feeling anything in particular, but if I had to choose, I would lean towards the under.
