Week 1 of the NFL season marks a clean slate as every team has a chance to make the most of the new season. Two teams that do not enter with the highest of expectations on the season are the Miami Dolphins and the Indianapolis Colts. That said, there are teams that exceeded expectations every year.
The Colts are 1.5-point favorites and hold -112 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Dolphins hold -108 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 47.5.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the season-opening matchup between these two teams.
Dolphins vs. Colts Best Prop Bets
Daniel Jones Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
The Indianapolis Colts made a bit of a surprising decision to name Daniel Jones the starting quarterback ahead of this season. Anthony Richardson has been unable to find his footing after being selected with the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and will watch from the sideline to start the year. Jones had some similar struggles with turnovers and decision-making in the early stages of his career and will look to get back on track after being released by the New York Giants last year.
It sometimes gets forgotten that one of Jones’ biggest strengths is his legs. The Duke product averages 31.1 rushing yards per game throughout his six-year career and has rushed for 2,179 yards and 15 touchdowns. Jones rushed for over 24.5 yards in five of his 10 starts last year with the Giants, even while his future with the organization was slipping away.
Now with a new franchise, Jones will likely play to his strengths. He is not a full-scale dual-threat quarterback, but is plenty capable of taking off when there is a lane and punishing a defense for not keeping a spy on him. He has tallied as many as 107 rushing yards in a game and tallied over 24.5 yards on the ground in 36 career starts. Jones is capable of picking up this type of yardage in just one rush.
Tyreek Hill Longest Reception Over 23.5 Yards (-120)
It was not long ago that Tyreek Hill was regarded as one of the premier talents in the entire NFL and in the mix for the top wide receiver. But the situation has deteriorated around him, and Hill’s production has sunk along with it. He was held below 1,000 receiving yards last year for the first time since 2019 and the first time since his rookie season without getting injured. Hill and Tua Tagovailoa have had some veiled shots at each other, and there still seems to be some work to be done in repairing their relationship.
But with all this said, it is impossible to overlook the raw talent that Hill still possesses. He is a touchdown threat every time the ball is in his hands and led the entire league in receiving yards with 1,799 in 2023. Hill will likely be lined up against his former teammate Xavien Howard for this matchup.
Even in such a disastrous season for the Dolphins last year, Hill tallied a longest reception of 23.5 yards in five games. He will now take on a Colts defense that ranked 26th in passing yards allowed and 29th in net yards allowed per pass attempt last year. Look for the entire Dolphins organization to wipe away last season’s struggles and attempt to get back to their playoff aspirations. His breakaway speed and ability to make defenders miss are too much to ignore.
Tyler Warren Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Indianapolis Colts selected Penn State tight end Tyler Warren with the 14th overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft. He was one of the most fun players in college football last year and lined up all over the field. Warren had a Big Ten-best 103 receptions for 1,233 yards, eight receiving touchdowns, 218 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, and also threw for a touchdown last year.
It will be interesting to see how the Colts utilize his skill set, but the Dolphins have struggled to defend the tight end position. Last season, they allowed an average of 55.8 receiving yards per game to tight ends. Indianapolis will be looking to make life easy for Jones in his Colts’ debut, and giving him some easy looks to the tight end is a clear path to doing this.
While the NFL is a different level of competition, Warren averaged 77.1 receiving yards per game last year. One would think Indianapolis would not invest such a significant draft pick on a tight end without a plan to have him involved in the offense. A line of 37.5 feels too low for his caliber of talent and, if you are feeling bold, there could be some value on the alternate lines. For the sake of this article, we will stick to the standard receiving prop.
