The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off their first 10-win season since 2021 and have made the playoffs in five straight seasons. The Buccaneers are starting their season in Atlanta against their division rival, the Falcons. Tampa Bay has won four of the previous five matchups between the two teams. After three straight seasons with a 7-10 record, the Falcons finished 8-9 in 2024, their best record since 2017.
Here are my favorite three prop bets for Sunday’s matchup at 1:00 p.m. ET between the Bucs and Falcons.
Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-137)
Baker Mayfield is coming off a career-high 41 touchdown passes in 2024 and has recorded 69 of them in his two seasons in Tampa Bay. Last season, including the postseason, Mayfield totaled more than 1.5 touchdowns in 13 of 18 games. Mayfield has started five games in his career against the Falcons and has finished with two-plus touchdown passes in four of them.
In 2024, Mayfield excelled on the road, throwing for at least two touchdowns in five of eight road games last season. Although Mayfield will be without one of his top targets, Chris Godwin, to start the season, the Bucs added Emeka Egbuka in the first round this past April.
Last year, Mayfield was second in the NFL in TD percentage when attempting a pass at 7.2% only behind Lamar Jackson (8.6%). As Mayfield enters his ninth season in the NFL, he continues to improve his game. He has an excellent opportunity in Week 1 against Atlanta, which allowed the second-most passing touchdowns (34) to opposing QBs in 2024.
Bijan Robinson Over 76.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
In his second year in the NFL, Bijan Robinson finished third in rushing yards with 1,456 while making his first NFL Pro Bowl. Robinson averaged 85.6 rushing yards per game in 2024, making it a good play to get his over in yards on the ground at 76.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook against the Bucs.
Robinson only totaled 63 and 61 rushing yards against Tampa Bay last season, making him due for a big performance against the Buccaneers. At the start of the season in 2024, Robinson struggled with consistency, but as the year progressed, his production increased. Robinson surpassed 76.5 rushing yards in his last six games of the 2024 season while hitting this mark 11 times.
Mike Evans Over 72.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
With Godwin out in Week 1, it should lead to an even bigger role for Mayfield’s number one target, Mike Evans. Evans completed his 11th straight season with 1,000-plus receiving yards and joined Jerry Rice as the only WRs to achieve this feat. Even though he is in his 30s, Evans showed that age is just a number, as he remains every bit as dangerous for opposing defenses.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, you can get Evans to record more than 72.5 receiving yards at -112. That total seems a little low since Evans has had plenty of success against the Falcons in the past. Evans has had at least 73 yards against Atlanta in four of the last six games. He has also recorded 73-plus receiving yards in 10 of his previous 15 matchups vs. the Falcons.
