This is the second contest of a three-game series in Chicago between the Cubs and visiting Washington Nationals.
Brad Lord is scheduled to pitch for Washington, while Matthew Boyd is slated to start for Chicago.
Nationals at Cubs prediction, preview
Brad Lord likely hasn’t been a savior for many, but the FIP is a respectable 3.98, with the ERA at 4.34. He has appeared in 43 games, with only 14 of those in a starting capacity. The fastball averages 95.1 mph, but the swinging strike rate is 9.6%, while the chase rate is only 24.6%. He does limit hard contact, with an 88.1 mph average exit velocity and a 5.8% barrel rate. The strikeout rate is only 19.5%, while the walk rate is 8%.
Nine of the 11 home runs allowed have come off the bats of lefties. Seven of the 11 home runs have been served up at home. While the K-BB% is 5.9% higher against lefties, the FIP is 1.49 higher due to the home runs. Most of the numbers are similar at home and on the road, but again, the home runs.
Lord started six games back in April. He went back to the bullpen and has started the last eight appearances. In those eight starts, he’s allowed more than three earned runs three times. In the last two starts, Lord has gotten pummeled for seven and six earned runs in three and 4.1 innings, respectively. He’s gone at least six innings twice. Lord faced Chicago back in June out of the bullpen, going one inning, walking one, and allowing four hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Cubs rank 27th in strikeout rate and sixth in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 10th in MLB.
Matthew Boyd has been great for Chicago this season. The lefty is averaging 93.3 mph on the fastball—a career high. The ERA is 2.94, while the FIP is 3.39 through 159.1 innings. The strikeout rate is 22.5%, while the walk rate is only 5.9%. He’s only allowed 15 home runs.
Fourteen of the 15 home runs have come off the bats of righties. The K-BB% is 21% against lefties and 15.1% against righties. The FIP is 2.21 vs. 3.81 against righties. The K-BB% is 10% higher at home.
In 27 starts, Boyd has allowed more than three earned runs five times, with three of those coming in his last three contests. He’s gone at least six innings 17 times. He faced the Nationals in Washington back in June, going 7.1 innings, walking one, and striking out six while allowing two earned runs on four hits.
Against left-handed pitching, the Nationals have the fourth-highest strikeout rate, the 27th-best ISO, and rank 26th in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Washington ranks 24th in FIP, while Chicago ranks fifth.
Nationals at Cubs pick, best bet
I like the Cubs to win this one fairly easy.
