After the July trade deadline, everyone penciled in the Seattle Mariners as a playoff team. They added big bats, creating a lethal lineup to complement their excellent pitching staff. Winning nine out of 10 after the deadline, the pencils started turning to pens as they began to challenge for the division. Now it’s all coming apart, as they have a tenuous grasp on the third Wild Card spot. This series against the Atlanta Braves will be key in deciding their fate.
The Braves enter as -137 moneyline favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 7.5 runs. Let’s dig into a preview, prediction and best bet for this Mariners vs. Braves matchup.
Mariners vs. Braves prediction, preview
In this matchup, we get to see two of the best strikeout arms in the major leagues go toe-to-toe. Hitters beware.
Mariners starter Logan Gilbert punched out 220 batters in a league-leading 208.2 innings last season. He’s taken strikeout stuff to a new level this year, ringing up 144 batters in 103.2 innings. That’s a jaw-dropping increase from 9.5 K/9 to 12.5 K/9. His brutal fastball-slider combo has fueled his 94th percentile whiff rate. But a slight uptick in walks and home runs allowed, plus untimely injuries, has left him at a bit of a regression this season compared to last.
His opposite number is no stranger to strikeouts. Reigning NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale steps to the mound for the Braves, continuing to dominate at 36 years old. After leading the league with 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings last season, he’s somehow up to 11.6 this year. His slider has been the best in baseball once again, and Sale owns the highest breaking ball run value per Baseball Savant. Even the best hitters in baseball get fooled by his breaking ball.
The power of these pitchers will carry this game. Both offenses have had their moments, but this is a lot of power on the mound to contend with. Even at this low total, the value is on the under.
