Major League Baseball starts the first weekend of September with all 30 teams on the schedule, and DraftKings Sportsbook has a nice David Ortiz-inspired 34% home run profit boost available to use on your top MLB Home Run single, parlay, SGP, or SGPx bet today. It should be a great day of baseball, starting with a Wrigley matinee and followed by 14 games under the lights, including games at homer-happy venues in Cincinnati, New York, Tampa and Denver. After taking a look at all the matchups, game environments, odds, and current form of the players available, my favorite home run props are from Colson Montgomery, Ramon Laureano, and Zach Neto.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences with these home run props—all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the top home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider, home run props are always volatile plays.
As a result, home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit. I typically play home run props individually and in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props go green.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Friday:
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Colson Montgomery to record 1+ home runs (+390)
We’ll start with a longer shot in our home run props from the early game as the White Sox head to the Motor City to take on the Tigers. While Detroit has a huge lead in the division and the White Sox are 28 games behind in fourth place, I like Montgomery’s chances of going yard on Friday night against Jack Flaherty.
Chicago has actually won five straight after a four-game sweep of the Twins to start their road trip. They scored 33 runs in those four games and have some exciting young hitters in the order, including the 23-year-old lefty Montgomery.
Since arriving in the majors on July 4, Montgomery has brought good power production and is up to 17 homers in 50 games. He hit seven of those homers in his last 11 games, including this blast deep into the night on Thursday:
Only Kyle Schwarber has more home runs than Montgomery since the All-Star break, and he has a 50% hard-hit rate and 14.7% barrel rate over his last 11 games.
Flaherty has given up 22 homers in his 27 starts this year with the Tigers, including 15 homers in 15 home starts. In his last home start, he gave up eight runs on 10 hits against the Royals. Lefties like Montgomery have hit 12 of his 22 homers allowed this year and have a .330 wOBA in the split.
Montgomery has shown enough power to be a key part of the White Sox lineup going forward, and he should be in the middle of the order on Friday against Flaherty, where he brings solid value with his home run props.
Ramon Laureano to record 1+ home runs (+400)
The Padres are at Coors Field on Friday night to start their three-game series by facing lefty Kyle Freeland, who is starting for the second time this week after facing just two batters before he was ejected on Tuesday.
Freeland’s frustration that led to his ejection came after a home run by Rafael Devers, which was Freeland’s 21st homer allowed in 26 games this season. Freeland has allowed 5.41 ERA overall and a 6.71 home ERA, and he has served up a .403 wOBA at home. He has allowed five homers in his last three outings and 11 homers in his last eight starts.
The Padres haven’t typically smashed lefties this season, but Laureano has been hot enough to grab him at this value as one of the team’s best right-handed hitters. Since arriving in San Diego at the trade deadline, the 31-year-old is hitting .322 with seven homers and a .405 wOBA. He has hit eight of his 22 homers on the season against lefties like Freeland with a .378 wOBA against southpaws.
Laureano has six homers in his last 20 games with a 53.6% hard-hit rate and 19.6% barrel rate. His most recent dinger came against the Twins last Saturday.
Getting Laureano at +400 at Coors feels like a great value, even though the wind will be blowing in, don’t let that scare you off this great spot and matchup for Padres home run props.
Zach Neto to record 1+ home runs (+330)
The Angels come home after taking two of three in Kansas City and four of their last six. They’ll open a divisional series against the Athletics in a favorable matchup against Mason Barnett. Zach Neto has my top home run props from this matchup, which is one of the latest games on the board.
Neto got a late start to the season after offseason shoulder surgery, but the 24-year-old has put together an excellent season, establishing himself as one of the team’s top hitters as a regular in the leadoff spot.
He has already set a new career-high with 25 homers this year in 121 games while hitting .261 with a .342 wOBA, also on track to be career bests. He has 18 of his homers and a .345 wOBA against righties this year, and six of his home runs have come in his last 19 games. He had a quiet series in Kansas City, but he had a pair of homers in the team’s previous stop in Houston.
Neto should be able to jump on Barnett, who went just four innings and allowed five runs on eight hits in his major league debut last Saturday. He had a 5.83 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, and a 5.53 FIP in Triple-A but was pressed into action in the Athletics’ rotation due to multiple injuries. Righty Wyatt Langford took him deep in his MLB debut.
In a favorable matchup, Neto’s home run props make a lot of sense at +330 as he and the Angels come home for a nice six-game homestand against the A’s and Twins.
