The two teams with the longest active division-winning streaks shouldn’t come as a surprise: the Kansas City Chiefs have claimed the AFC West in each of the past 10 seasons, while the Buffalo Bills have won the AFC East six straight times. Third are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have claimed the NFC South in five consecutive campaigns.
Tampa Bay will hope to extend its streak to six when the 2025-26 season begins tomorrow with a 1 p.m. ET clash against the Atlanta Falcons, who nearly pipped it to the title on the final day in 2024. The Buccaneers will have a new offensive playmaker in first-round wideout Emeka Egbuka, while the Falcons will enter Game 4 of the Michael Penix Jr. era.
But who will start the season with a statement? Below, I’ll outline my two favorite first touchdown scorer prop bets at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Buccaneers at Falcons First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Bijan Robinson First Touchdown Scorer (+400)
For Robinson, it’s a case of Occam’s Razor: the simplest solution is the best solution. Robinson is probably the best player on either team, regardless of position, finishing with the second-best grade among running backs at Pro Football Focus last season. The 23-year-old was an integral part of the Falcons’ plans last season, finishing with 14 total scores and garnering 67.0% of the team’s carries inside the red zone, the second-highest rate of any player. He made the most of his carries, scoring 13 times from that range, more than all but three players. He’s also a factor in the receiving game, totaling 400-plus yards through the air in each of his NFL seasons so far.
His Atlanta teammate Drake London (+850) is another good call, given that he easily led the league in target share both within the 20- and 10-yard lines, but Robinson has the explosive ability to record 20-plus-yard scores both on the ground and through the air. Tampa Bay’s defense might make it difficult, as it allowed just 11 total scores to running backs last season, among the fewest in the league, but Robinson did score a receiving touchdown against the Buccaneers in the Falcons’ Week 8 win. I also like him to run more early, in case the visitors jump out to a lead and force Penix to throw.
Emeka Egbuka First Touchdown Scorer (+1200)
Tampa Bay turned heads when it selected Egbuka with the 19th overall pick despite having two of the top cornerbacks, Jahdae Barron and Will Johnson, still on the board. The move was doubly puzzling because the Buccaneers had brought back Chris Godwin in free agency and still have future Hall of Famer Mike Evans on the roster as Baker Mayfield’s top target. But Tampa Bay must really believe in Egbuka, and he should be a valuable asset early on with Godwin still not ready to return from the broken ankle that ended his 2024 season in Week 7 and Jalen McMillan on the Physically Unable to Perform list with a neck injury.
Since Egbuka is a rookie wideout, I don’t have 2024 target share data to work off of, but the six-foot-one pass-catcher was an end zone magnet at Ohio State, scoring 10 touchdowns in two of his three seasons, and he displayed excellent ball skills for the national champions. As a slot receiver, he’ll spend a lot of his time lined up against a fellow rookie, fourth-round nickelback Billy Bowman Jr., or against A.J. Terrell Jr., who has a worse coverage grade than Atlanta’s other outside cornerback, Mike Hughes. Plus, the Falcons allowed a league-high 22 touchdowns to wideouts last season, so there should be plenty to go around.
