Last season, the Washington Commanders got oh-so close to glory in one of the most surprising one-season turnarounds in NFL history. Just months after drafting Jayden Daniels with the second overall pick, they entered the fourth quarter of the NFC Championship Game with a semi-realistic shot of advancing to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1992.
The Commanders — and their wiry commander, Daniels — have realistic hopes of doing one better in 2025-26. Their season kicks off with a 1 p.m. ET clash tomorrow against the New York Giants. Both teams will be seeking to start their season on the right foot by scoring the game’s first touchdown.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, you can bet on basically every offensive player from either team to score the first touchdown.
Let’s break down the odds below.
Giants at Commanders First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
Malik Nabers First Touchdown Scorer (+950)
In terms of offensive talent, the early returns on the 2024 draft class look really, really good. Of course, Daniels is the headliner, but Nabers had 1,204 yards and seven scores and wasn’t even the best rookie wideout drafted in the first round from LSU. Brian Thomas Jr.’s exploits for a terrible Jacksonville Jaguars team overshadowed what Nabers was able to do in New York, but he had a league-average success rate despite playing with Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, and Tommy DeVito.
Now that Nabers is playing with Russell Wilson, who had an above-average on-target percentage last season despite facing pressure at the second-highest rate, his prospects should only improve. By Pro Football Focus’ grades, he was the eighth-best wideout in football, with no other Giants receiver even in the top 80. If New York wins the coin toss and march down the field against a weak Washington defense, Wilson’s surest bet is to throw the ball to Nabers. He had the league’s fourth-highest target percentage within 10 yards last season and can only hope that the Giants actually get inside the 10 more frequently this season.
Zach Ertz First Touchdown Scorer (+1100)
I don’t understand why Ertz has only the seventh-highest odds of any Commander. It makes sense that McLaurin (+750) is the favorite, given that he just set a franchise record for single-season receiving touchdowns (13) and recently signed a three-year, $96 million extension. But while McLaurin led the team in touchdowns last season, Ertz was third with seven scores, and Daniels clearly trusted him to produce in the NFC Championship Game, giving him 16 targets. Brian Robinson Jr. (eight touchdowns) now plays for the San Francisco 49ers.
Washington’s pass-catcher room should be more crowded this season, with Deebo Samuel joining the mix from San Francisco, and at the age of 34, there’s no guarantee that Ertz will be quite as sharp as he was last season. But the big man is an integral part of the team’s plans in the red zone, ranking sixth league-wide in red zone target share and 13th in target share inside the 10, significantly ahead of McLaurin in both instances. The Commanders did run the ball nearly twice as often as they threw in the red zone last season, but within that zone, they had 23 passing touchdowns and only 19 rushing scores.
