I’m pivoting over to NFL and college football primarily, so make sure to check out all our other fantastic baseball writers’ picks and predictions for today’s games. But I refuse to leave my MLB folks high-and-dry just because the pigskin’s live on the turf again. I’ll be running best bets, still, a few days a week. And, ased on my preliminary research, here are my three favorite baseball bets for tonight’s slate, separate from our game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Pete Crow-Armstrong 2+ total bases (+120)
It’s really tough to back Pete at the plate right now. His confidence against fastballs has seemingly cratered; during his August-long stretch of being one of the worst qualified hitters in August, he was swinging at 49.1% of them. When he was unconscious in May and June, he swung at 55% and 60%, respectively. It’s simple enough to say that PCA needs to regain his grasp on how pitchers are adjusting the fastball against him, and his BABIP should rise, barrel rate, etc.
I like it to happen tonight against Bryce Elder. We’re not asking a ton of Pete at the plate. We’re simply asking him to clear 2+ total bases for plus money. The Cubs just lost Kyle Tucker to a calf twinge for an undetermined amount of time. I’m not even sure Tucker’s lineup protection was benefiting PCA that much anymore, seeing as his slump lasted through Tucker’s return to form from the finger injury. Just in time for him to pull a calf in the NL Central pennant race!
Elder’s fastball velo hides near the bottom of the barrel at 91.5mph on average, which is the 12th percentile among qualified pitchers. The Cubs offense is quietly gelling.
This is a believe best bet for today. Crow-Armstrong was never as good as he was in May and June, but he’s not as bad—not nearly—as we saw at the plate in August. We’re just asking that he barrels a single fastball today and turns a routine single into a double, which is, honestly, what PCA is best at.
Speed shouldn’t slump this long, and Cade Horton on the mound at home should galvanize the lineup. Book it.
Mariners (-145) at Rays
George Kirby gets the run tonight and the edge lands sharply with three batter stats backing it. Cal Raleigh has already smashed 50 home runs, becoming the first MLB catcher ever to hit that many in a season. His slugging profile stays elite even in tough matchups. Randy Arozarena logged a 20-20 season in runs and steals while posting a 134 wRC+, giving Seattle explosive top-of-order punch. And J.P. Crawford quietly delivers power too—with 128 RBIs in 2025, he’s wrecking runs from the middle of the order. That’s three dynamic bats lining up against a Tampa rotation headlined by Fabian, Houser, or Boyle—a group prone to hard contact and elevated BAA.
Kirby may not own ace numbers, but facing this Mariners lineup gives him all the room he needs. Coors-free walls won’t deflate the power here—each elevated swing carries extra weight in the damp Trop air. Kirby counters with a 24.3 percent K-rate and ground-ball rates near 44 percent, enabling him to avoid crooked innings. On the other side, Tampa’s pitchers all have walk rates north of 6% and modest K-X/BB profiles that leave scoring lanes open. Seattle has scored double-digit runs in 8 of their last 12 games, and those three named hitters produce crooked innings at will.
Tampa’s bullpen, though scrappy, struggles to suppress sluggers, and Kirby’s early-inning control lets Seattle lean in confidently early. The offensive math screams Mariners. And so we ride the wave.
Lame juice, I know. But the value is too good.
Astros vs. Yankees NRFI (+105)
This matchup screams pitch-first baseball. Will Warren enters with a 4.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP over 136 innings across 28 starts, showing control with a 149-to-60 K:BB ratio. He’s held opponents scoreless in the first inning in 23 of those 28 starts, a dominant 82% success rate. Houston’s bats have been ice-cold here, failing to score in the first inning in 76% of their home games. That creates an ideal environment for a silent start.
Across the diamond, Jason Alexander has not allowed a first-inning run in any of his eight starts, adding an extra layer of locking down Round 1. Despite his 4.61 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, his early frames have been immaculate.
Combine that with an Astros offense that’s disappeared early all season—they’ve consistently dropped behind in games, failing to tack on the first run in 18 straight contests at one point—and this script is baked.
