The San Francisco Giants are making one last charge, having won eight of their last nine games to get themselves back to .500 for the first time since August 10. They’re still an extreme long-shot (+1200) to make the playoffs, but there’s at least a feasible path that didn’t seem to exist nine games ago. Two more games at Coors Field against the woeful Colorado Rockies should help.
Game 2 of the three-game set will start at 8:40 p.m. ET. It’ll be a battle of two “aces”, with San Francisco set to start Logan Webb and Kyle Freeland taking the mound for Colorado.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies prediction, preview
The Giants did what they needed to do last night, jumping out to a 6-0 lead and holding on to win, 8-2. Despite the pitcher-unfriendly conditions, second-year pro Kai-Wei Teng produced the best start of his career, and Rafael Devers and Willy Adames both went yard. Adames was the team’s marquee signing in the offseason but has had the 14th-worst batting average among qualified hitters this season, and Devers has taken somewhat of a step back after arriving in a blockbuster midseason trade from the Boston Red Sox. But Devers has posted a 1.401 OPS across the winning run, and Adames (1.052) hasn’t been too far behind. The Rockies, meanwhile, have undergone an offensive collapse, losing nine of their last 11 games.
San Francisco should feel especially confident tonight with Webb on the mound. The 26-year-old has earned All-Star nods in each of the last two seasons and should get Cy Young votes for the fourth straight campaign. He’s a workhorse, leading the National League in innings for the third consecutive season, and he’s managed to put up elite numbers despite his volume, with a 3.16 ERA and a 2.69 FIP. His game should be well-suited for Coors Field; although he tends to give up lots of hard hits, he produces ground balls at a 91st-percentile clip, thanks to his elite sinker. He has a 4.44 ERA in Colorado for his career, but has had plenty of solid starts there before, including an eight-inning, one-run gem on September 15, 2023.
Freeland has been the Rockies’ best pitcher, but that doesn’t mean he’s been good; his 5.28 ERA would rank sixth-to-last among qualified pitchers if he weren’t 6.2 innings shy of qualification. In particular, that form has been driven by a series of poor starts at Coors Field, where he’s posted just a 6.36 ERA this season. Advanced stats don’t redeem him much either; he ranks in just the first percentile in pitching run value and the third in expected batting average. The only silver lining in the southpaw’s repertoire is that he rarely walks batters, but the Giants walk at the league’s sixth-highest rate. Though they’ve made some of the softest contact in baseball this season, that could change against a pitcher who’s conceded hard hits at a bottom-decile rate.
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies pick, best bet
Best Bet: San Francisco Giants -2.5 Alternate Spread (-101)
I’m slightly wary of taking one of the league’s most inconsistent teams at such an aggressive line, but Webb is that good and Colorado is that bad. Barring a late run, the Rockies have already clinched the record for the worst run differential in modern history.
Strong Lean: Under 4.5 Walks (+110)
Both Webb and Freeland have elite walk rates, and though San Francisco draws free passes frequently, Colorado has walked 17 fewer times than any other team in the league.
