This is the second contest of a four-game series in Minnesota between the Twins and visiting Chicago White Sox.
Davis Martin is scheduled to pitch for Chicago, while Simeon Woods Richardson is slated to start for Minnesota.
White Sox at Twins prediction, preview
Davis Martin has a 4.03 ERA and a 4.93 FIP through 116 innings. His fastball averages 94 mph, but the strikeout rate is just 17.5%. He gets hit hard, with an average exit velocity of 91.1 mph, a 10.1% barrel rate, and a 45.7% hard-hit rate. That’s translated into 19 home runs allowed.
Lefties have given Martin fits: his K-BB% is just 4.4%, and he’s allowing 1.88 HR/9 against them. Despite an 80.9% strand rate, his FIP against lefties is a concerning 6.01. At home, his K-BB% improves by 4.3%, but the FIP remains the same as on the road due to a higher HR/9 (1.62 at home vs. 1.31 on the road).
In 20 starts, Martin has allowed more than three earned runs six times. He’s gone at least six innings in 10 of those outings. He faced the Twins two starts ago at home, going five innings with one walk, six strikeouts, and two earned runs allowed on five hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Twins rank 18th in strikeout rate and 14th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 21st in MLB.
Simeon Woods Richardson has a 4.59 ERA and a 5.14 FIP through 84.1 innings this season. He has a 19.3% strikeout rate and a high 10.1% walk rate. Home runs have also been an issue—he’s allowed 15 so far. His barrel rate is 11.3%, and his hard-hit rate is 41.2%. His chase rate is just 25.9%.
Nine of his 15 home runs have come off right-handed hitters, and 10 of the 15 have come on the road. SWR has struggled equally against both righties and lefties, but his road performance has been significantly worse. His K-BB% on the road is just 5.7%, and his FIP is nearly three runs higher due to a 2.29 HR/9.
In 17 starts, Woods Richardson has allowed more than three earned runs four times. He’s gone at least six innings just once. He faced the White Sox way back in April in his season debut, going four innings with one walk, five strikeouts, and two earned runs on five hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the White Sox have the 13th-highest strikeout rate, the 29th-best ISO, and rank dead last in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, since August 1, Chicago has the 17th-lowest FIP, while Minnesota ranks 19th.
White Sox at Twins pick, best bet
I have no faith in either pitcher and they both are susceptible to the long ball. Neither offense is a juggernaut, though. That said, I think runs will be scored in this one. Martin has had trouble with lefties and Matt Wallner has a .294 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
