Entering the last four weeks of the MLB season, it seems as if the American League Wild Card chase will be a four-team battle for one spot. Right now, the Seattle Mariners hold the pole position for the final spot, but the Texas Rangers (two and a half games back), the Kansas City Royals (three) and Cleveland Guardians (four) aren’t entirely out of it yet. The Tampa Bay Rays (five and a half games behind the Mariners) will need to sweep Seattle this week if they want to have a shot.
The series will begin with a 7:35 p.m. ET clash in Central Florida. Tampa Bay will send Shane Baz to the mound, while the Mariners will start Luis Castillo.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays prediction, preview
For the Rays, making the playoffs this season is relatively unimportant, as they’ve been fairly inconsistent since the All-Star break and mostly stayed the course at the trade deadline, acquiring some solid pitchers while downgrading the offense slightly. Seattle is all-in, trading for rental third baseman Eugenio Suárez at the deadline in the hopes of making a deep playoff run behind an MVP-caliber season from catcher Cal Raleigh. So far, the results have been mixed: the Mariners are just 16-12 with Suárez on the roster, and the Venezuelan is hitting below the Mendoza Line, although he has slugged six homers. Despite all of its talent, Seattle ranked just 18th in OPS and 20th in ERA in August.
Castillo wasn’t immune from the pitching struggles last month. The Dominican has totaled 13 innings in his last three starts, giving up 14 runs on 24 hits and six walks. He’s been shelled all season, ranking in the 15th percentile in average exit velocity, the 12th percentile in barrel rate, and the sixth percentile in hard hit percentage, and while the Rays have mostly been soft-contact kings, they’ve been far better at home than on the road. That’s also been true of Castillo: he’s posted a 2.79 ERA in 15 home starts and a 5.04 mark in 12 appearances on the road. Tampa Bay has also been among the best teams against right-handed pitchers.
Still, Castillo probably has the edge in the starting pitching matchup, given that Baz has produced a negative-WAR season. Prior to the All-Star break, Baz was a solid starter with a major home run problem, but in the second half of the season, he’s made seven starts and pitched to an 8.47 ERA, conceding nine homers, including five against the New York Yankees on August 19. Advanced stats indicate that he’s gotten pretty unlucky — he’s had a more respectable 5.36 FIP across that span — but his 16th-percentile barrel rate could prove a challenge against an offense featuring Suárez and Raleigh.
Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays pick, best bet
Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-120)
Neither of these teams’ offenses are as good as they arguably should be for the talent on the roster, but I’m more swayed by the poor starting pitching and the fact that the game will take place at hitter-friendly George M. Steinbrenner Field.
Strong Lean: Over 2.5 Home Runs (-140)
The value play here is probably to go under (+100) but with two pitchers prone to allowing barrels and rosters featuring Suárez (42 homers), Raleigh (50), and Junior Caminero (39), it’s hard not to imagine fireworks.
