This is the opener of a three-game series in Chicago between the Cubs and visiting Atlanta Braves.
Spencer Strider is scheduled to pitch for Atlanta, while Colin Rea is slated to start for Chicago.
Braves at Cubs prediction, preview
Spencer Strider missed most of 2024 due to injury. He’s pitched 96.1 innings this season and the fastball velocity is down by 1.5 mph. The strikeout rate was once in the mid-30% range, but is now at 25.2%. Not surprisingly, the walk rate is up at 9.1%. It’s going to take time for Strider to return to form, if at all. The ERA is 4.95 while the FIP is 4.64. While the swinging strike rate is 14.1% and the chase rate is 29.9%, batters are hitting Strider hard when squaring up pitches. The average exit velocity is 91.7 mph. It was often at 88 mph or below. The barrel rate is 10.5% and the hard hit rate is 43.2%.
11 of the 17 home runs allowed have come at home. Strider has struggled with lefties, as the K-BB% is only 12.2% while the FIP is 5.07. Most of the numbers are better at home except for the home run issue.
In 18 starts, Strider has allowed more than three earned runs five times. He’s gone at least six innings eight times. This will be his first time facing Chicago this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Cubs have the 27th-highest strikeout rate but the fifth-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks seventh in MLB.
Colin Rea has been fairly average this season. The strikeout rate is only 17.8% while the ERA is 4.23, which is supported by the 4.67 FIP. The barrel rate is 10% while the hard hit rate is 40.4%. The swinging strike rate is only 8.2% and the chase rate is 25.7%. Rea has served up 20 home runs.
Lefties have hit 14 of the 20 home runs allowed. 14 of the 20 home runs have been served up at home. The K-BB% is 4% lower against lefties while the FIP is 2 runs higher. Most of the numbers are similar at home and the road with the only difference being the home runs.
In 23 starts, Rea has allowed more than three earned runs eight times. He’s gone at least six innings only six times. This will be his first time facing Atlanta this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Braves strike out at the 10th-highest rate while posting the 19th-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks 16th in MLB.
As for the bullpens, Atlanta has the 24th-lowest FIP, while Chicago has the seventh-lowest since Aug. 1.
Braves at Cubs pick, best bet
The range of outcomes is very wide with Strider. He’s not vintage Strider but he’s making his way back to status quo. He can still miss bats but the control is obviously not pinpoint, which leads to good offenses pounding him. The Cubs are one of those offenses. I’m not enamored with Rea but he likely won’t go deep into the game and the Cubs’ bullpen has been pitching well.
