This is the opener of a three-game series in Detroit between the Tigers and visiting New York Mets.
Sean Manaea is scheduled to pitch for New York, while Charlie Morton is slated to start for Detroit.
Mets at Tigers prediction, preview
Sean Manaea is sporting a 5.01 ERA through 41.1 innings pitched this season, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. The FIP is only 3.46, as the BABIP is .314 while the strand rate is only 67.3%. The strikeout rate is a robust 29.8% while the walk rate is a miniscule 4.5%. The swinging strike rate is 12.4%, the barrel rate is 7.2% and the hard hit rate is 39.6%.
All six of the home runs allowed have come off the bat of righties. Five of the six home runs have been served up at home. Manaea has been lights out against lefties, but the sample size is small at 9.1 innings. The road FIP is 1.94 compared to 4.52 at home, but that’s mainly due to the home runs. The K-BB% is still a respectable 23.3% at home while it’s 28% on the road.
In eight starts, Manaea has allowed more than three earned runs four times. He hasn’t pitched more than five innings in any start. This will be the first time facing Detroit this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Tigers strike out at the 21st-highest rate while posting the fourth-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks second-best in MLB.
Charlie Morton is 41 years old yet still pumping 94.3 mph gas. Respect. The strikeout rate is 23.5%, the swinging strike rate is 11.8% and the chase rate is 29.9%. This is where the good part of the story ends. The ERA is 5.25 while the FIP is 4.64. The walk rate is up at 10% while he’s allowed 20 home runs in 128.2 innings. The average exit velocity is 91 mph and the hard hit rate is 43.2%.
The numbers are similar against lefties and righties. The slight differences are that the strikeout rate is higher against lefties but so is the walk rate. Morton has been slightly better at home, with a K-BB% that is 3.6% higher.
In 22 starts, Morton has allowed more than three earned runs nine times, but five of those came in his first five starts of the season. He’s gone at least six innings nine times. Morton faced the Mets in early July, going six innings, walking three and striking out four while allowing one earned run on four hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Mets strike out at the 22nd-highest rate while posting the third-best ISO. Their wOBA ranks second in MLB.
As for the bullpens, New York has the 16th-lowest FIP, while Detroit has the 25th-lowest since Aug. 1.
Mets at Tigers pick, best bet
I feel confident in writing that the Mets are going to score some runs on Morton. I’m not so sure about the Tigers against Manaea. He’s been really good, despite some of the surface numbers. That said, he has been touched up, and the Tigers have power and don’t strike out often against left-handed pitching.
