To close down the full day of MLB action, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Atlanta Braves in a Sunday Night Baseball battle. The Phillies will be looking to finish off a four-game series sweep of their NL East opponent after outscoring the Braves 24-7 through the opening three games.
These teams have very different outlooks on the season. The Atlanta Braves stumbled out of the gates, losing their first seven games of the year, and never were able to fully recover. They hold a 61-78 record on the season and sit 18 games behind the Phillies, who lead the division with a 79-57 record. Philadelphia is still chasing an opening-round playoff bye and has plenty to play for down the stretch.
The Phillies are -169 favorites on the moneyline tonight and hold +124 odds on tonight’s -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Braves have +138 odds of winning the outright victory, with the run total set at 9.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Sunday’s Phillies vs. Braves matchup.
Braves at Phillies prediction
Jesus Luzardo will get the start for the Phillies tonight. The 27-year-old was the most notable offseason addition by the organization, and expectations have been further scaled up following the loss of Zack Wheeler. Luzardo got off to an excellent start to the season, but hit a wall midseason, in which he battled some issues pitching out of the stretch and tipping pitches. Overall, the left-hander is posting a 12-6 record with a 4.23 ERA. He has struck out 175 and allowed 146 hits across his first 149.0 innings pitched. Luzardo has not faced the Braves yet this year.
At the plate, the Phillies rank third in the MLB in batting average, sixth in OBP, and ninth in slugging percentage. They have tallied the third-most hits, rank 10th in home runs, ninth in total runs, and ninth in total bases. Kyle Schwarber has climbed to second in the MLB with 49 home runs and leads the entire league with 119 RBIs. Trea Turner leads the National League with 168 hits and a .300 batting average this year. Bryce Harper is in the midst of another strong season, slashing .269/.360/.500 with 111 hits, 22 home runs, and 63 RBIs.
Hurston Waldrep is making just the seventh start of his MLB career tonight for the Braves. The 23-year-old allowed 13 earned runs across his two starts and 7.0 innings pitched last year, but has been lights out this season. Across the 30.0 innings he has pitched, Waldrep is posting a 0.90 ERA with 24 strikeouts and 21 hits allowed. No member of the Phillies’ active roster has faced Waldrep thus far in his career.
The Braves rank 19th in the MLB in batting average, 10th in OBP, and 20th in slugging percentage. They have tallied the 17th-most hits, rank 15th in home runs, 15th in total runs, and 17th in total bases. Matt Olson headlines the production with 142 hits, an NL-best 36 doubles, 21 home runs, and 76 RBIs. Michael Harris II is not far off with 128 hits on the season, 17 home runs, and 73 RBIs. Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley have each also tallied over 100 hits.
Braves vs. Phillies pick, best bet
The first 30 innings pitched by Hurston Waldep this season have been impressive, but feel unsustainable. He gave up eight hits in 5.1 innings in his previous start against the Marlins without generating a strikeout. Yes, he deserves credit for navigating the danger and preventing runs, but he hasn’t exactly been unhittable. The Phillies will be the toughest lineup he has faced this season, and they put this on full display by producing 19 runs in the series opener.
Luzardo has not allowed more than four runs in any of his past six starts and, outside of his midseason blowup, has done a nice job giving his team a chance to win in his starts. Atlanta is averaging just over two runs per game in this series, and the Phillies’ bullpen has yet to allow an earned run. Luzardo has faced the Braves lineup for a combined 113 at-bats in his career, with them batting .239 and registering 36 strikeouts. This primarily dates back to his time with the Marlins.
The Phillies are looking to grab complete control of the NL East race and cement their outlook for a first-round playoff bye. Atlanta offers this opportunity as they have dropped the first three games of this series, and they are 3-6 in their last nine games played. Look for Luzardo to do enough to give the Phillies a chance and for the bats to be the story of this matchup. Expect some damage to be done to Waldep’s unsustainable 0.90 ERA and for the Phillies to push the run total to a level the Braves cannot match.
Jump on the +124 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook for the -1.5 run line and get your brooms out in Philadelphia.
