Sunday marks the third game for all teams in EuroBasket Group D. Already, the group has taken a solid shape: France and Poland are out to 2-0 starts, Belgium and Israel are 1-1, while Slovenia and Iceland bring up the rear. Since only four teams advance to the Round of 16, this game between Slovenia and Belgium has the feeling of a must-win.
The Slovenians are 11.5-point favorites and hold -650 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 173.5 points. Let’s examine my top prediction and pick for this Slovenia–Belgium matchup.
Slovenia vs. Belgium prediction, pick
The great thing about the EuroBasket group stage is that you have direct lines of comparison. Both squads have already faced off against France, the easy favorite in Group D. Belgium had first honors, and lost 92-64 in a wire-to-wire victory for the French. On Saturday, Slovenia faced the French and nearly pulled out the win. They led 54-47 before fading down the stretch and ultimately losing 103-95. But it showed the gap in these two teams, despite the Belgians having the better record.
Once again, the Slovenians nearly rode Luka Doncic all the way to victory. He was a force of nature in Saturday’s game, putting up 39 points with eight rebounds and nine assists across 35 minutes. Doncic gets a power-up whenever he puts on that Slovenia jersey.
Even this excellent French defense couldn’t keep a lid on Luka. He attempted a Shaquille O’Neal-like 20 free throws in the game. The work is cut out for Belgium’s defense, and I highly doubt they are up to the task. The French won because they shut off the water for Slovenia’s other scorers and wore them down with their depth. Belgium can’t do the same. That being said, this is a big spread for a Slovenian squad that has dropped winnable games with regularity.
