All 30 MLB teams are in action today, with the first action beginning at 3:07 p.m. ET and continuing throughout the night. The Houston Astros will host the Los Angeles Angels as part of the slate, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. This AL West matchup holds a different outlook for each team, with the Astros sitting at the top of the divisional standings with a 75-60 record while the Angels are 12.5 games back and out of the postseason picture. Today will be the second matchup of a four-game series, with the Angels producing a 2-0 victory in the series opener.
Looking at the odds for tonight, the Astros enter as convincing -164 favorites on the moneyline and hold +123 odds on the -1.5 run line on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Angels hold +134 odds of getting the outright victory with the run total set at 9.
Here’s my prediction and pick for Saturday’s Angels vs. Astros matchup.
Angels at Astros prediction
Kyle Hendricks is on the mound for Los Angeles today. The 35-year-old is making his 26th start of the season and enters with a 6-9 record, a 5.04 ERA, and has allowed 21 home runs while striking out 87 across his 130.1 innings pitched. Hendricks has faced this Astros team twice already this season. He picked up his first loss of the season in the April 13th matchup, allowing five home runs in just 4.0 innings pitched. The 2016 champion took the mound again on June 22nd against the Astros and gave up eight hits and five runs, three of which were earned. Hendricks walked away with a no-decision, but the Angels suffered an 8-7 loss in the matchup.
Offensively, Los Angeles ranks 29th in the MLB in batting average, 28th in on-base percentage, and 13th in slugging. The Angels have tallied the fourth-most home runs, but rank 20th in total runs, 18th in total bases, and 29th in hits. Looking at the overall pitching staff, the Angels rank 27th in the MLB in ERA, and their bullpen specifically has given up the third-worst ERA. 78 home runs have come against the Angels’ relief pitchers, which is the second-most in the league.
Spencer Arrighetti will be making just his seventh start of the season for the Astros tonight. Through the 29.0 innings he has pitched, the 25-year-old is posting a 6.21 ERA with five home runs and 15 walks allowed. He holds a 1-5 overall record and has not escaped a start without allowing an earned run this season. Arrighetti opened some eyes during his rookie season last year and finished with a 4.53 ERA across his 29 appearances. But he has struggled to find his form this year, and tonight will be his first matchup against the Angels.
Houston ranks fourth in the MLB in batting average, 13th in on-base percentage, and 15th in slugging percentage. They have produced the 16th-most home runs, the sixth-most hits, the 13th-most total bases, and rank 21st in total runs. The Astros are posting a collective 3.83 ERA, which ranks seventh in the league, and their bullpen is posting the eighth-best ERA at 3.70.
Angels vs. Astros pick, best bet
The Astros will be riding the momentum of last night’s 2-0 victory and enter today’s game on a three-game winning streak. Houston’s bullpen has been strong all season and combined to allow just two total hits in the final three innings last night. Spencer Arrighetti has struggled so far this season, but he is a better pitcher than his current numbers indicate. The Astros are 41-28 when playing at home this season, and seeding is still very important as Houston continues to push for a first-round playoff bye. With 27 regular-season games remaining, every result could matter in this race, and expect them to be ready to capitalize against an inferior opponent.
The Angels enter this game on a three-game losing streak and have dropped eight of their past 10. They lost their past three games by a combined margin of 29-6. Kyle Hendricks has struggled against this Astros lineup this season and enters today’s matchup having allowed four or more earned runs in three straight starts as well as having given up 3+ runs in seven of his past nine. Los Angeles’ bullpen does not paint a much more optimistic picture and has posted some of the worst metrics from start to finish this season. The Angels are batting just .176 and averaging 2.33 runs per game over their past six games and have not looked capable of uplifting a poor pitching staff for any stretch this season.
Expect the Astros to be more competitive at the plate and create a pathway to putting some runs on the board. There are some serious concerns with the Angels’ pitching staff across the board, and the lineup has not looked ready to produce at a level that can overcome this. Expect Houston to push their way to an early lead and for their bullpen to be ready to slam the door shut, as that has become a consistent blueprint for success this season. Count on the Astros covering the 1.5-run line for the second straight matchup in this AL West series.
