This is the second contest of a three-game series in Washington between the Nationals and visiting Tampa Bay Rays.
Ryan Pepiot is scheduled to pitch for Tampa Bay, while Jake Irvin is slated to start for Washington.
Rays at Nationals prediction, preview
Ryan Pepiot is posting a solid 3.82 ERA while averaging 95.1 mph on his fastball. His swinging strike rate is 11.5%, and his strikeout rate sits at 24.1%. However, the walk rate is on the higher side at 8.4%, and he’s allowed 26 home runs over 153 innings. The main issue is hard contact: the average exit velocity is 90.2 mph, the barrel rate is 9.7%, and the hard-hit rate is 43%.
Pepiot has reverse splits. Right-handed hitters have taken him deep 16 times out of the 26 total home runs, and his K-BB% is just 13.2% against them, compared to 18.7% against lefties. He’s been better at home, with an 18.7% K-BB% and a 3.89 FIP, but notably, 17 of his 26 home runs allowed have come at home.
In 27 starts, Pepiot has allowed more than three earned runs six times. He’s gone at least six innings in 17 of those starts. This will be his first time facing Washington this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Nationals strike out at the 25th-highest rate, rank 23rd in ISO, and are 20th in MLB in wOBA.
Jake Irvin is averaging just 92.4 mph on his fastball—down from the 94 mph he previously sat at. His strikeout rate is only 15.2%, while the walk rate is 8%. He’s allowing hard contact across the board, with an average exit velocity of 90.7 mph, a barrel rate of 11.7%, and a hard-hit rate of 47.7%. That’s led to 29 home runs allowed in 148.1 innings. The swinging strike rate is just 7.4%, and his chase rate is only 24.5%. His 5.40 ERA is right in line with his 5.48 FIP.
Eighteen of those 29 home runs have been hit by left-handed batters, and 18 have come on the road. Most of his peripheral numbers are similar against righties and lefties—the key difference is the home run totals. His K-BB% is slightly higher on the road, but again, the main issue is the long ball.
Against right-handed pitching, the Rays strike out at the 14th-highest rate, have the 15th-best ISO, and rank 10th in MLB in wOBA.
As for the bullpens, Tampa Bay has the eighth-lowest FIP since Aug. 1, while Washington ranks 28th.
Rays at Nationals pick, best bet
I have no faith in Irvin or the Nationals bullpen. Irvin has problems giving up home runs to lefties. Brandon Lowe has hit 23 home runs off righties and has an ISO of .263. I think he goes yard in this one.
