This is the second contest of a three-game series in Toronto between the Blue Jays and visiting Milwaukee Brewers.
Quinn Priester is scheduled to pitch for Milwaukee, while Kevin Gausman is slated to start for Toronto.
Brewers at Blue Jays prediction, preview
Quinn Priester was initially slated to start on Wednesday but was scratched due to a wrist injury. He will now get the nod on Saturday. Through 128.1 innings pitched this season, Priester is sporting a 3.44 ERA. However, that isn’t supported by the 4.37 FIP. The main culprit looks to be the 80.2% strand rate. The strikeout rate is 19.4%, while the walk rate is 8.4%. The barrel rate is fine at 7%, but the hard-hit rate is 41.3%. He’s allowed 17 home runs on the season.
Eleven of the 17 home runs have come off the bat of righties. Priester has essentially been site neutral.
n 19 starts, Priester has allowed more than three earned runs four times. He’s gone at least six innings nine times. This will be his first time facing Toronto this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Blue Jays strike out at the 30th-highest rate while posting the 12th-best ISO. Their wOBA is the fifth-best in MLB.
Kevin Gausman is still averaging 94.4 mph on his fastball at age 34. His strikeout rate used to be in the 30% range during his prime. While it’s dipped this season, a 24% rate is still very respectable. The walk rate is 6.9%, and he’s allowed 20 home runs in 153.2 innings. The swinging strike rate is 12.3%, while the chase rate is 30.6%. The hard-hit rate is 39.4%.
Fourteen of the 20 home runs have been served up at home. Gausman is a little better against righties, as his K-BB% is 3.6% higher, and his FIP is 0.38 lower. While his K-BB% is 4% better at home and his strand rate is 80.1%, all those home runs allowed have produced a 4.4 FIP.
In 26 starts, Gausman has allowed more than three earned runs seven times. He’s gone at least six innings 15 times. This will be his first time facing Milwaukee this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Brewers strike out at the 24th-highest rate while posting the 18th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 11th-best in MLB.
As for the bullpens, Milwaukee has the third-lowest FIP, while Toronto has the 22nd-lowest since Aug. 1.
Brewers at Blue Jays pick, best bet
I think the Blue Jays put up some runs, especially the righties. I also think the Brewers get to both Gausman and the bullpen.
