With a month left in the MLB season, there’s a lot to play for still in the NL West, which is tied with the AL West as the league’s most competitive division at the top. The Los Angeles Dodgers currently have a two-game lead over the San Diego Padres as they enter a three-game home set against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Meanwhile, the Padres are on the road for a clash with the Minnesota Twins.
For tonight’s 10:10 p.m. ET series opener, the Dodgers will start Blake Snell, while Zac Gallen will crest the hill for Arizona.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers prediction, preview
After sweeping the Cincinnati Reds, Los Angeles is on a four-game winning streak for the first time since the All-Star break in what has been a maddeningly inconsistent last two months. Across that winning streak, the Dodgers have looked in control on both sides of the ball, scoring 26 runs and conceding just six, and they’ve now gone 9-4 in their last 13 games. Los Angeles will face a tougher test to keep up that form against the Diamondbacks, who have had the eighth-best offense this month and gone 15-11 despite dealing Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez at the deadline. Arizona impressively split a four-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers, who have baseball’s best record by four and a half games.
The Dodgers should feel confident starting the series with a win behind Snell, who’s been everything the team could’ve asked for since returning from a shoulder injury, making four starts and pitching to a 1.96 ERA across 23.0 innings. The two-time Cy Young Award winner’s strikeout rate is slightly down — he’s the all-time career leader in that stat — but his average exit velocity, whiff rate, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate would all rank in the league’s top quintile if he’d pitched enough to qualify. He’s only really struggled with walking batters, and this month, the Diamondbacks have walked at a below-average rate while striking out the fourth-most times.
Snell should have a huge advantage in the pitching matchup over Gallen, a Cy Young finalist in 2023 who’s suffered through a miserable season, posting a 5.13 ERA. Advanced stats aren’t particularly kind to him either, as he ranks in just the 14th percentile in pitching run value and his 4.58 FIP and 4.70 expected ERA aren’t that much lower than his actual mark. If there’s any silver lining, Gallen has had a solid month — posting a 3.10 ERA — but he’s put up a 4.54 career ERA in seven starts at Dodger Stadium, the worst mark among the eight ballparks in which he’s made five or more starts. Los Angeles got to him for four runs in 5.2 innings on May 11, with six different players having multi-hit games.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Runs (+102)
During their winning streak, the Dodgers have won each game by three or more runs, and Arizona has lost 14 of Gallen’s 27 starts by multiple runs, including each of his last two. Los Angeles is also back at home, where its OPS has been 100 points better and its ERA just 0.17 runs higher.
Strong Lean: Blake Snell v Zac Gallen – Most Walks Allowed Moneyline: Zac Gallen (-110)
Though Snell has always been a somewhat walk-prone pitcher and Gallen, by and large, has had above-average control, Snell has shown solid command since returning from his shoulder injury. Even in a down year overall, the Dodgers always excel at drawing walks, ranking second in that category for the fifth straight season.
