This is the second contest of a four-game series in Philadelphia between the Phillies and visiting Atlanta Braves.
Bryce Elder is scheduled to pitch for Atlanta, while Ranger Suarez is slated to start for Philadelphia.
Braves at Phillies prediction, preview
Bryce Elder has not been good this season. The swinging strike rate is 8.8%, while the strikeout rate is 18.3%. The walk rate is 8.6%, and he’s allowed 20 home runs in 117.2 innings. The hard-hit rate is 44.1%. The ERA is 6.12, but the FIP is lower at 5, as the BABIP is .318 while the strand rate is 65.6%.
Twelve of the 20 home runs allowed have come off the bat of righties. The strikeout rate is the same against righties and lefties, but the walk rate is 5.8% higher against lefties. The strand rate is only 56.7% against righties. Elder has been much better on the road. The K-BB% is 17.3%, compared to only 3.2% at home.
In 22 starts, Elder has allowed more than three earned runs nine times. He’s gone at least six innings 11 times. He faced Philadelphia at home back in late June, lasting only two innings, walking four and striking out two while allowing nine earned runs on eight hits.
Against right-handed pitching, the Phillies strike out at the 26th-highest rate while having the 13th-best ISO. Their wOBA is sixth-best in MLB.
Ranger Suárez is having a solid season. The lefty only averages 91.2 mph on the fastball, but the strikeout rate is 23.7% with a 30.1% chase rate. Three pitches have a run value greater than 5—cutter, curveball, and changeup. The walk rate is only 5.6%, and he’s allowed 10 home runs in 126 innings. The 3.07 ERA is supported by the 3.05 FIP. Suárez has been a master at limiting hard contact. The average exit velocity is 85.5 mph (lowest), barrel rate is 5.6% (third-lowest), and hard-hit rate is 29.4% (lowest).
Nine of the 10 home runs have come off the bat of righties. The K-BB% is 16.5% vs. 24.8% against lefties. Suárez has been slightly better at home but still good on the road.
In 20 starts, Suárez has allowed more than three earned runs four times. He’s gone at least six innings 15 times. He faced Atlanta at home way back in May, going six innings, walking three and striking out eight without allowing an earned run on four hits.
Against left-handed pitching, the Braves strike out at the 16th-highest rate while having the 18th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 16th-best in MLB.
As for the bullpens, Atlanta has the 21st-lowest FIP, while Philadelphia has the seventh-lowest since Aug. 1.
Braves at Phillies pick, best bet
None of the odds appeal to me, but I have the utmost faith in Suarez at home.
