The New York Mets helped themselves make an unlikely push for a division title and all but sewed up a Wild Card Spot this week. A sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies brought them to within four games over the Phillies for the NL East lead, while the Los Angeles Dodgers’ sweep of the Cincinnati Reds increased the chasm between the Mets and Reds to 4.5.
New York now opens a four-game series against the Miami Marlins, which begins with a 7:10 p.m. clash tonight at Citi Field. Clay Holmes will toe the rubber for the Mets, while the Marlins will counter with Adam Mazur.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami Marlins at New York Mets prediction, preview
New York must be thrilled with its performance against Philadelphia, given that youngster Nolan McLean threw an eight-inning, four-hit gem, and it’ll have equally high hopes for Jonah Tong, who’s set to make his MLB debut tomorrow night. The offense also scored 25 runs across the three games, and the Mets have now won eight of their last 11 games behind the strength of an offense that has led all of baseball in OPS in August. Vibes are a lot lower for Miami, which has lost 16 of its last 23 games behind a pitching staff that has been the league’s fourth-worst this month. In their last two games, the Marlins were outscored 23-3 by the Atlanta Braves.
It’ll be hard for Miami to expect much today from Mazur, who made eight starts for the San Diego Padres last season and posted a 7.49 ERA and allowed four runs on four walks and five hits in 5.2 innings against the Phillies in his sole Marlins start on June 18. His minor-league track record hasn’t provided that much more reason for optimism, as he’s posted a 4.36 ERA in 107.1 innings for Triple-A Jacksonville this season and had a 4.73 mark across various levels in 2024. The right-hander did allow a below-average barrel rate last season, so if there’s any silver lining, it’s that he might be able to keep the league’s third-most prolific barrel-getters in check.
For the home side, Holmes shouldn’t excite New York as much as McLean or Tong, but he’s been solid, even if unspectacular, this season. He’s also in decent form, allowing two or fewer earned runs in five of his last six starts, though the exception was a 3.2-inning, five-run disaster against the Braves on August 12. Advanced numbers are pretty kind to the 32-year-old, who has been a 76th-percentile pitcher by run value this season, and thanks to his reliance on his sinker, he ranks in the 94th percentile in ground ball rate. He’s a tough matchup for Miami, which hits grounders at the league’s sixth-highest rate. Three of the Mets’ four infielders grade as above-average defenders.
Miami Marlins at New York Mets pick, best bet
Best Bet: New York Mets O5.5 Runs (+105)
History isn’t in New York’s favor on this one, since it hasn’t yet had a four-game streak of six-plus runs scored, but it’s hard to feel remotely confident in Mazur. It’s equally challenging to feel confident in the Marlins’ bullpen, which has posted a 5.55 ERA this month.
Strong Lean: Clay Holmes to Record a Win (+135)
If the Mets take a lead and hold on to win, it’s going to be early, given Mazur’s struggles. That should give Holmes the inside track at his 12th win of the season and his third straight, as long as he completes the fifth inning — which he’s done in 21 of his 26 starts this season.
