Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
It’s a small slate on Thursday, but allow me to narrow and already narrow field down to three bets on the DraftKings Sportsbook: Bryan Reynolds, Kyle Schwarber and Matt Olson.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Bryan Reynolds 1+ Home Run (+500)
Reynolds has not had a season to remember, but things have started to turn around in a big way in August. In his 105 plate appearances in the month, the switch-hitting outfielder is batting .305 with a .274 ISO and a .579 slugging percentage — the latter stat being a top 25 mark in the league within that span of time. Still, the main draw with this home run prop is the presence of Miles Mikolas. While it’s certainly true that the veteran RHP has been far better pitching in St. Louis in 2025, Mikolas has surrendered a whopping 1.96 long balls per nine to left-handed opponents regardless of location. The 37-year-old also sports just a second percentile whiff rate (16.9%) to go along with a fourth percentile opponent barrel rate (11.9%). In layman’s terms, Mikolas is washed.
Kyle Schwarber 1+ Home Run (+145)
Look, sometimes we all deserve a layup. Kyle Schwarber’s home run odds are laughable at this point, but can you blame the sportsbook? The veteran comes into this contest just a pair of long balls away from tying his career-high of 47 home runs, and we’re not even at the end of August. Heck, Schwarber’s hit 15 homers since the All-Star break, a stretch where the 32-year-old is rocking a massive .366 ISO. For the season as a whole, Schwarber ranks in the 100th percentile in hard hit rate (60.5%), the 99th percentile of barrel rate (20.1%) and the 99th percentile of expected slugging rate (.611). He’s a monster in the batter’s box and he should be nightmare fuel for Cal Quantrill, who will be tasked with somehow getting Schwarber out on Thursday evening. By the way, RHBs are hitting .335 with a .412 wOBA off Quantrill in 2025. So that’s fun.
Matt Olson 1+ Home Run (+295)
Olson continues to fall well short of his 54 home run campaign in 2023, but the 2025 version of the slugger is no slouch. In fact, Olson comes into tonight’s matchup with Aaron Nola in possession of 96th percentile marks in both hard hit rate (53.9%) and average exit velocity (93.3). But let’s not kid ourselves. The real reason for backing Olson with a home run prop on Thursday is the fact that he’s facing Nola. Once one of the best pitchers in the NL, Nola’s regressed hard this season, struggling with injury and left-handed opponents. To wit, the former seventh-overall pick has conceded a whopping 2.78 home runs per nine within the split across his 11 starts. Olson should be licking his chops. I’d also keep an eye on Ronald Acuna (+330). Though not left-handed, Acuna has four career homers and a 1.092 OPS off Nola in their prior matchups. Maybe a little Braves HR parlay?
