The Los Angeles Dodgers won four straight games between June 29 and July 3, picking up a road win against the Kansas City Royals before sweeping the unimpressive Chicago White Sox. At that point, it was their sixth such streak of the season. For the first time since then, the Dodgers will have the chance to pick up their fourth straight win as they go for a sweep against the Cincinnati Reds tonight.
The first pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. Nick Lodolo will start for Cincinnati, while Los Angeles will have Shohei Ohtani take the mound.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers prediction, preview
The Dodgers have been extremely inconsistent since the All-Star break, never posting more than a four-game losing streak or a three-game winning streak. In the aggregate, the numbers look fine: Los Angeles has the ninth-best OPS and fourth-best ERA across that span. In theory, then, its record should be far better than the 18-18 it’s actually gone, but with both pitching staff and lineup beset by injuries, Los Angeles has rarely had both sides of the ball click at the same time. The Reds, meanwhile, have an identical record and nearly identical ERA across that span, but their offense has been much less potent, posting the fourth-lowest OPS. That offensive ineptitude has manifested itself so far this series, as Cincinnati has scored a total of three runs, thanks to gems by Emmet Sheehan and Clayton Kershaw.
The Dodgers will need more than they got last Wednesday against the Colorado Rockies from Ohtani, who conceded a pair of runs in the second inning and another trio in the fourth, as back-to-back poor outings have ballooned his ERA from 2.37 to 4.61. Still, advanced numbers are kind to the three-time MVP: his 2.06 FIP and 2.59 expected ERA suggest that he’s been exceptionally unlucky to have been tacked with as much damage as he has, and he’d rank in the top decile in eight of 12 Statcast categories if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify. Even in the defeat, he had a respectable .341 expected wOBA, but the Rockies just hit it to the right spots.
Lodolo, meanwhile, will be making his return to the Reds’ rotation after missing the last three weeks with a blister on the index finger of his throwing hand. Prior to suffering the injury, the southpaw had been cruising, putting up a 1.98 ERA since June 18 and giving up no more than three earned runs in any outing over that span, striking out 54 and walking eight. His 3.38 FIP in those starts suggests that some regression may be on the horizon, but he’s a pitcher without significant weaknesses and with elite control, thanks to an 88th-percentile chase rate. Lodolo is unique in that he throws his curveball, four-seam fastball, sinker, and changeup in nearly equal proportions, which could work well against Ohtani, who’s been comparatively poor against changeups.
Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-119)
Ohtani is due for a bounce-back start, especially now that he’s back at Dodger Stadium, where he’s had just a 2.45 ERA this season. Plus, there’s no reason to suggest that Lodolo’s strong form is that unsustainable, especially since Cincinnati has a strong fielding unit led by trade deadline acquisition Ke’Bryan Hayes.
Strong Lean: Mookie Betts 2+ Total Bases (+110)
On August 4, Los Angeles fans gave Mookie Betts a standing ovation to show support for the slumping shortstop, and in 20 games since then, he’s slashed .329/.400/.468, recording two or more total bases 11 times. Betts has a career .903 OPS against southpaws, and Lodolo has been 100 points worse against righties.
