UPDATE: Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Quinn Priester has been ruled out tonight because of a wrist injury. Aaron Ashby will start for Milwaukee, followed by Erick Fedde.
Baseball Wednesdays are pretty amazing; because teams are generally finishing up series and have to travel after the game, there will be no shortage of baseball action for fans to enjoy, with the slate stretching 12 hours from the first pitches of the 1 p.m. games to the final out of the Detroit Tigers-Athletics matchup, which begins at 10:05 p.m. ET.
For this article, I’ll focus on the 11 games that start at 6:35 p.m. ET or later, although that misses out on the Seattle Mariners’ Bryan Woo, arguably the best pitcher set to take the mound today. Here are my three favorite starting pitcher prop bets from tonight’s late slate at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Best Starting Pitcher Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Quinn Priester to Record a Win (+200)
At 83-50 — 5.5 games better than any other team — the Milwaukee Brewers should easily finish with baseball’s best record. Since May 25, Milwaukee has gone 58-22, posting a 3.31 staff ERA and a .785 OPS. Priester has been a major key to that turnaround: the Brewers have won all 15 of his starts since then, and he’s recorded wins in 10 of those, pitching to a 3.01 ERA. He hasn’t picked up a win in his past three starts, only reaching the requisite five-inning threshold once, but +200 odds are simply far too long for a pitcher of Priester’s caliber and of Milwaukee’s.
If it were truly a toss-up game, Priester’s long odds would be understandable. However, the Arizona Diamondbacks have gone just 13-11 in August, which is very impressive given the fire sale they undertook at the trade deadline but not particularly noteworthy otherwise. Across that span, the Diamondbacks’ offense has been surprisingly good, as they’ve put up the sixth-highest OPS, but I can’t be convinced that they’re a more dangerous team without Josh Naylor or Eugenio Suárez. Ryne Nelson has also given up 12 earned runs in 17.2 innings across his last three starts, so it’s not like he’ll keep the Brewers’ bats quiet.
Nolan McLean O4.5 Hits Allowed (-120)
The 24-year-old has been a revelation for a New York Mets rotation that was desperately in need of some firepower after Griffin Canning went down with a torn Achilles tendon and Frankie Montas suffered a significant elbow injury. In his first start, he allowed just two hits across five scoreless innings, walking four and striking out five, and he bettered himself six days later with a seven-inning, four-hit, two-run performance. His expected ERA, expected batting average, strikeout rate, barrel rate, and ground ball rate would all rank in the league’s top decile if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify.
Still, 4.5 hits is an incredibly high bar, and even though he’s cleared it twice, the Philadelphia Phillies’ offense is much better than either the Seattle Mariners’ or Atlanta Braves’. While the Mariners rank in the league’s bottom six in batting average this month and the Braves 14th, Philadelphia ranks fourth. Plus, opponents’ .200 batting average on balls in play, McLean’s 2.96 FIP, and his 2.61 expected ERA all indicate that he’s gotten somewhat lucky and is destined to regress at some point. The Phillies also employ one of the league’s most aggressive approaches, which could allow him to stay in the game longer.
Luis Morales 6+ Strikeouts (+140)
I’ve gone from one team’s third-ranked prospect to another. The Athletics’ righty flamethrower made his debut with a relief appearance on August 1 against Arizona and has since transitioned into a starting role, pitching to a 1.32 ERA and striking out 15 across three starts (13.2 innings pitched). Of course, that sort of form is unsustainable — his 3.57 FIP, 4.54 expected ERA, and .231 batting average on balls in play certainly suggest that that’s the case — but his 23.8% strikeout rate is an above-average mark.
The Detroit Tigers also whiff at a rate not commensurate with their talent, with the ninth-highest whiff rate and third-highest strikeout rate in baseball. Individually, Riley Greene leads the American League in strikeouts. So far, Morales has tended to pepper the strike zone, throwing 64 of his 97 pitches in the zone in the his most recent start. The Tigers have the 13th-highest zone swing rate and the 11th-lowest zone contact rate, and they also tend to make contact infrequently when they chase. Morales averaged more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings in the minors this season and in 2023 and 12.3 K/9 as a 17-year-old with Cuban side Sancti Spiritus in 2020-21.
