Football season is here, and while I’ve been betting the NFL Week 1 board over the summer, I haven’t shared any plays yet. NFL Best Bets Cheat Sheet will serve as the home for all of my wagers that week throughout the football season. You can also listen to DKN Daily Bets for more in-depth breakdowns on the plays.
Let’s get into the NFL Week 1 bets that I’ve made below. I’ll add more bets as the week goes on if I place anymore.
Miami Dolphins +1.5 (+100) 1-unit: The market is down on the Dolphins this season, but now priced as an underdog to the Colts, I feel we’ve crossed a line. Yes, Miami has some issues in the secondary, but Indy’s offense is one of the least likely to exploit it. Meanwhile, we get a fresh and healthy Tua Tagovailoa, who generally has had much more success early in the season, before getting dinged up. I give the Dolphins advantages all over the field in this one, including head coach and quarterback. Playing indoors in Indy should also play into the favor of Tua and his explosive receivers. I’ll take points with Miami. Oh, and by the way — the Colts still haven’t won a game in Week 1 since 2013. Just a historic streak of coming out of the gates unprepared.
San Francisco 49ers ML (-135) 1-unit: I’m not a fan of road favorites in Week 1, nor do I like to go against the NFL Week 1 division underdog trend (38-16-1 ATS since 2014). Yet, I’m doing both and backing the Niners as a short road favorite in Seattle. The Seahawks lost a lot of veteran talent, including Geno Smith, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. This offense could be in trouble. Sam Darnold thrived under quarterback whisperer Kevin O’Connell, before crashing and burning down the stretch. I have no faith that his success will translate in Seattle. The Niners are off a dreadful season, but retooled and got healthy to return to form. The Seahawks beat a rundown 49ers team towards the end of the regular season, but otherwise San Francisco has dominated this matchup, winning the six prior games. I think we see the Niners round back into form in this one.
6PT Teaser – DEN -1.5/ATL +8.5 (-120) 1-unit: If you play survivor, these big Week 1 favorites have been scary lately. I don’t know about the Eagles or Commanders in division games, but I’m pretty confident in the Broncos. Denver has a strong defense, improving offense and great head coach, on top of one of the best home field advantages in the NFL. As much potential as Cam Ward may have, this is a very tough way to begin your NFL career, particularly when not surrounded by much talent. The Falcons do factor in as one of these Week 1 division underdogs, and happen to be at home. Tampa is dinged up to start the season, and coming off a season in which it likely overachieved. I expect the Falcons to make a jump in the division, and give the Bucs a game here. Teasing up to the key number of 8.5 means the Falcons just need to keep it within a possession on their home field. This team actually beat Tampa twice last season, even with Kirk Cousins under center.
6PT Teaser – DEN -1.5/CAR +9 (-120) 1-unit: I like Denver so much that I’ll back ’em twice here. Similar to Atlanta, we can take Carolina and get them up from a field goal to over a full possession at +9. We’ve heard good things about the improvement in Jacksonville this offseason, but this is a lot of points against a head coach in his debut. Carolina showed improvement of its own towards the end of last season, and made some moves to build around Bryce Young. If Young can pickup where he left off, the Panthers could even be live to win this game.
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