If the Houston Astros want to hold off the Seattle Mariners atop the AL West, this three-game home set against the Colorado Rockies is a series they have to sweep. Colorado it virtually guaranteed to finish with the worst run differential in MLB history and was the first team eliminated from the playoffs.
Tonight’s game will start at 8:10 p.m. ET in Houston. Tanner Gordon will take the mound for the Rockies, while the Astros will send ace Hunter Brown atop the hill.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros prediction, preview
Houston was one of the league’s more active teams during the trade deadline, reuniting with former World Series champion Carlos Correa, but the results haven’t quite been there this month. The pitching staff, which had been one of the league’s best units for the first four-plus months of the season, has struggled to the tune of a 5.01 ERA in August, and the new-look offense has posted just a .684 OPS despite Correa slashing .349/.407/.901 in his return to Texas. The Astros have been far worse offensively than Colorado, which has actually had the league’s 13th-highest OPS in August, but the Rockies have posted a disastrous 7.68 staff ERA en route to a 9-14 record.
Brown hasn’t been the issue for Houston. Since a rough first start after the All-Star break, he’s put together five excellent starts in a row, giving up just five earned runs in 30.0 innings of work, walking 10 and striking out 26. He has no real weakness, ranking above the median in all 12 Statcast categories, and his four-seam fastball has been the league’s sixth-most valuable pitch this season. He’s gotten a little lucky — his 3.11 expected ERA and 2.91 FIP are both significantly worse than his 2.36 ERA — but that fortune should be sustainable, given the Astros’ above-average fielding unit.
Of the eight Colorado pitchers with seven or more starts this season, Gordon’s negative-0.2 WAR ranks third, which should say more about the Rockies’ struggles and less about Gordon. To be fair, it’s not all awful: remove a three-start stretch between the end of July and the start of August in which he conceded 23 earned runs in 10.1 innings, and he’s pitched to a 3.18 ERA across his other six starts. The 27-year-old has gotten fairly unlucky, with a 4.47 FIP and 5.56 expected ERA that are far better than his 7.11 ERA, and he’s been adept at avoiding walks. Still, Houston should be able to get to him easily, given that he’s lost all three of his starts away from Coors Field and pitched to a 13.14 ERA.
Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros pick, best bet
Best Bet: Houston Astros -2.5 Alternate Run Line (-115)
I’d normally be tempted to take Colorado at plus-money to lose by one run or fewer against an out-of-form team, but a Brown start should be the Astros’ respite from their own pitching struggles. Gordon is 0-8 on the road in his career, being bad enough to escape with only one no-decision.
Strong Lean: Hunter Brown to Record a Win (-120)
Though Brown has only picked up one win this month, the Rockies have had the league’s worst offense on the road. Brown should shut Colorado down, and it’s hard not to imagine the offense doing just enough damage against Gordon.
