If the New York Mets are going to have a chance of catching the Philadelphia Phillies for the NL East lead, that charge must begin this week. New York won last night to cut the deficit to six games, but a sweep is basically a must.
Though the battle for the NL East headlines tonight’s 12-game featured DFS slate at DraftKings, the Mets and Phillies are far from the only talented teams — and players — set to take the diamond today. Here are two pitchers, three infielders, and three outfielders I’m targeting for tonight’s slate.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $200K Bat Flip [$50K to 1st]
PITCHER
Stud
Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins, $8,400 – As Toronto closes in on its first division title since 2015 and its second since 1993, it could hardly ask for an easier opponent than the post-trade deadline Twins. Since selling most of its impactful MLB players at the deadline, Minnesota has gone just 8-15 with the league’s fifth-worst OPS and has scored four or fewer runs in six of its last seven games. Bassitt hasn’t been in the greatest form recently, giving up three or more earned runs in four of his last six starts, but his home-road splits are notable: he averages 20.0 FPTS per game at Rogers Centre and 9.1 FPTS per game everywhere else. He struggles to induce chases, but the Twins have chased at an above-average rate this season.
Value
Justin Verlander, San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs, $6,800 – Verlander was roughed up in his last outing, allowing seven runs on seven hits in 4.1 innings of work (-1.05 FPTS) against the San Diego Padres, ending an impressive stretch in which he’d allowed one or fewer earned runs in four of his previous five starts. The three-time Cy Young Award winner is clearly far past his prime, but his 3.88 FIP suggests that he’s still capable of being an effective pitcher, as does his 76th-percentile hard-hit rate. The Cubs have had a miserable month offensively, ranking second-to-last in OPS, and even in winning eight of their last 10 games, they’ve recorded just a .664 mark. Verlander has averaged 13.3 FPTS per game at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park.
INFIELDER
Stud
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox, $5,600 – Last season’s AL MVP runner-up has had a white-hot August, slashing .341/.424/.565 and averaging 11.3 FPTS per game to help keep the Royals — now four games behind the Seattle Mariners — in playoff contention. He has a great matchup against a White Sox team that has gone cold lately with just an 8-14 record in August, and he’s mashed against them all season, averaging 12.9 FPTS per game across 11 contests. Martín Pérez ($7,800) isn’t the easiest matchup in the world, but his 5.18 expected ERA indicates that his actual 2.51 figure that he’s posted across his first 28.2 innings in Chicago is bound to rise. In his 14-year-career, the Venezuelan has allowed a .799 OPS to righties, and Witt’s OPS has been 49 points higher against southpaws this season.
Stud
Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, $4,400 – I picked Turang on Friday coming off of an absurdly hot week, and though he cooled down slightly, the eight FPTS per game that he’s averaged over his last three games still match his season average and only drop his overall mark over the last 10 games to a still-impressive 10.5 FPTS per game. Turang has an excellent matchup against Brandon Pfaadt ($7,300), who’s posted a 6.36 ERA away from Chase Field. Pfaadt throws either a four-seamer or a sweeper on 45% of his pitches, and Turang has been among the league’s better hitters against both pitches.
Value
J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, $4,000 – With a 15-8 record in August, Philadelphia is peaking at the right time, and that charge has been led in part by the three-time All-Star backstop, who’s overcome a rough start to the season to put together a star-level last few months. He’s had an .892 OPS (7.8 FPTS per game) since June 30, making him an excellent value play for his minuscule salary. Plus, in a small sample size, Mets starter Sean Manaea ($7,600) has allowed an OPS 327 points higher to right-handed batters and has generally struggled as of late, allowing four or more earned runs in each of his last four starts.
OUTFIELDER
Stud
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals, $6,400 – It’ll be a tight race to the finish if Judge wants to win his third American League MVP in four seasons, as Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh ($6,200) continues to chase down his AL single-season home run record, but Judge — who hasn’t gone deep in a week — is a decent bet to get himself out of a mini-slump tonight. The 33-year-old has posted mythical numbers against left-handers in a small sample size, with a 1.212 OPS in 119 plate appearances, and Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore ($8,500) has struggled recently. The All-Star has a 7.88 ERA across 32.0 innings since making his maiden appearance in the showcase, though he’s settled down somewhat with two quality starts in his last three.
Stud
Jo Adell, Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, $4,100 – The Angels are going to miss the playoffs and finish with a losing record for the 10th consecutive season, but Adell has quietly had the best campaign of his career, mashing 29 homers and posting an above-average OPS+ for the first time. The 26-year-old has had a particularly strong last eight games, going deep four times and posting a 1.265 OPS (12.5 FPTS per game). Patrick Corbin ($6,300), meanwhile, has regressed with four poor starts in a row, as he’s recorded negative fantasy output in each of his last two games and pitched to an 11.48 ERA in August. Corbin has allowed an .808 OPS to right-handed batters, and Adell has recorded a .922 mark against southpaws, albeit in an 86-PA sample size.
Value
Nathan Church, St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, $2,600 – The 25-year-old’s salary is low because he’s a relatively unknown rookie and took four games to get his first MLB hit, but his proven track record in the minors makes me confident that he’ll figure it out sooner rather than later. He’s recorded double-digit FPTS in two of his last three games after taking Adrian Houser deep last Friday and had a .911 OPS in 385 plate appearances across three MiLB levels this season. Though he hasn’t been in the everyday lineup, he should be against right-hander Mitch Keller ($7,200), who’s posted an 8.31 ERA (5.58 FPTS per game) in six starts since the All-Star break. Church recorded a .937 OPS against righties in the minors.
