The National League Central race has been exciting this season, with a division battle that could come down to the wire. Unfortunately for the Pittsburgh Pirates and the St. Louis Cardinals, they’re nowhere near that race. But the season goes on. The teams aim to assess their offseason needs, while the players look to finish strong. And MLB games between non-contenders always seem to find ways to produce fireworks.
As if that wasn’t entertainment enough, the game ended on a walk-off bomb to center field from Alec Burleson with two outs in the ninth. Baseball always finds a way to excite.
The Cardinals are a -131 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is set at eight runs. Let’s dig into a preview, prediction, and best bet for this Pirates vs. Cardinals game.
Pirates vs. Cardinals prediction, preview
Pitching has gotten these two clubs in trouble all year, and this matchup shows exactly why.
Mitch Keller is a solid hurler for the Pirates. He’s not going to deliver spectacular results, but he’s a reliable innings-eater who can be counted on as a back-of-the-rotation arm. His ERA has ranged between 4.21 and 4.34 in each of the past three seasons, and he’s on track for 30+ starts again this year. The problem is that Keller is currently the No. 2 arm in Pittsburgh’s rotation behind all-world pitcher Paul Skenes. That’s asking too much of an average arm for a team hoping to be competitive.
The Cardinals hoped that Andre Pallante could be another pitching success story. He was excellent over 121.1 innings last year, recording a 3.44 expected ERA, per Baseball Savant. But things have moved in the wrong direction this year, as his xERA has jumped nearly a full run. He’s still generating a lot of ground balls, but they’re being hit harder. Pallante has already given up 18 home runs in 134 innings this year—compared to just eight last year.
The 26-year-old still has plenty of time to turn it around. Development is rarely linear, and St. Louis can afford to wait for a bounce-back. But it’s an unfortunate turn in what once looked like a promising career. Still, when he looks good, he looks good.
Neither pitcher has been particularly inspiring this year. Both are coming off a string of rough starts. Even against two subpar offenses, they’re likely to allow enough damage to push this total over.
