This is the second outing of a three-game series in New York between the Mets and visiting Philadelphia Phillies.
Jesus Luzardo is scheduled to pitch for Philadelphia, while Sean Manaea is slated to start for New York.
Phillies at Mets prediction, preview
Jesus Luzardo has been much better than the 4.1 ERA indicates. He’s averaging 96.3 mph on the fastball, posting a 27.9% strikeout rate, and given up only 14 home runs in 145 innings. The swinging strike rate is 13.5%, while the chase rate is 30.7%. The barrel rate is 6.7%, a career low. He’s been unlucky with a .338 BABIP.
Luzardo has been the devil to lefties, posting a 38.3% K-BB% and a 0.45 FIP. All 14 home runs have come off the bat of righties, and the K-BB% is only 14.9%, while the FIP is 3.89. Luzardo has been slightly better at home, but that doesn’t mean he’s been bad on the road.
In 26 starts, Luzardo has allowed more than three earned runs six times. He’s gone at least six innings 15 times. He faced the Mets back in late June at home, going 6.2 innings, walking one and striking out seven without allowing an earned run on three hits.
Against left-handed pitching, the Mets strike out at the 23rd-highest rate while having the 15th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 16th-best in MLB.
Sean Manaea has started seven games since returning from injury. The ERA is 5.15, but the FIP is much lower at 3.93. The strand rate is 67.4%, while the HR/9 is slightly elevated at 1.47. He’s only averaging 91.5 mph on the fastball, but posting a 28.3% strikeout rate and 11.2% swinging strike rate. The average exit velocity is 88.7 mph, barrel rate is 7%, and the hard-hit rate is 38%. The walk rate is sub-2 for the first time since 2020.
Manaea has predictably been tough against lefties, posting a 28.6% K-BB% and 1.5 FIP. While the K-BB% is 21.8% against righties, they have hit all six home runs, while the FIP is 4.68. Manaea has been much better on the road. The K-BB% is 9% higher, while the FIP is 1.94 vs. 5.66 at home.
Manaea has yet to pitch six innings in a contest. He’s allowed more than three earned runs in four starts, which have come in the four most recent outings. This will be the first time facing the Phillies this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Phillies strike out at the 18th-highest rate while having the ninth-best ISO. Their wOBA is 10th-best in MLB.
As for the bullpens, Philadelphia has the fourth-lowest FIP, while New York has the 17th-lowest since August 1.
Phillies at Mets pick, best bet
The combo of Luzardo and the Philly bullpen has a good chance of neutering the Mets offense. On the flip side, Manaea has been getting lit up recently and the bullpen has been susceptible.
