With just over a month left in the season, the race for the AL Cy Young is heating up. Right now, the Detroit Tigers’ Tarik Skubal (-130) has a slight edge over the Boston Red Sox’s Garrett Crochet (+100) and will get the chance to make another statement tonight, with the Tigers set to begin a three-game road series against the Athletics.
Opposing him for the Athletics will be J.T. Ginn, who will throw the game’s first pitch at 10:05 p.m. ET.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Detroit Tigers at Athletics prediction, preview
Detroit started the second half cold, losing eight of its first nine games. Since then, however, it’s been business as usual for the Tigers, as they’ve posted an 18-8 record with an .803 OPS and a 3.71 ERA in their last 26 games, both of which rank among the league’s top 10. Trade deadline acquisition Charlie Morton has pitched well in three of his four games with the club, and fellow deadline acquisition Chris Paddack has had three solid starts out of five. The Athletics, meanwhile, have had one of the league’s best offenses since the All-Star break, posting the fourth-best OPS across that span, and a 3.53 staff ERA has propelled them to a 15-10 record, though they’ve benefited from a fairly friendly schedule.
Skubal shouldn’t be concerned. There simply don’t seem to be many offenses capable of performing against the southpaw, whose 2.58 ERA and 2.72 FIP since the All-Star break constitute disappointing numbers by his ridiculous standards. The 28-year-old leads all of baseball in five different statistical categories and the American League in five others, and he’s likely to reclaim the strikeouts lead from Crochet tonight. He ranks in the league’s top decile in eight of the 12 Statcast categories, and by pitching run value, his changeup is the nastiest pitch in the game. Though he gives up barrels at merely a league-average clip, two of the Athletics’ three most frequent barrelers hit from the left side, and Skubal has held southpaws to a microscopic .479 OPS this season.
Skubal has a huge advantage in the pitching matchup against Ginn. The 26-year-old has a few tools — his sinker has been a solidly above-average pitch this season, producing just a .313 expected wOBA and a 23.2% strikeout rate — and advanced stats indicate that he’s gotten fairly unlucky, but he’s been just an 18th-percentile pitcher this season by run value, and his 4.95 FIP is barely better than his 4.93 ERA. Like several of the Athletics’ pitchers, Ginn has pretty extreme home-road splits, allowing a 3.38 ERA in 32.0 innings on the road and a 6.75 ERA in 28.0 innings at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park.
Detroit Tigers at Athletics pick, best bet
Best Bet: Detroit Tigers -2.5 Alternate Run Line (+117)
Detroit has won by three or more runs in 10 of Skubal’s 25 starts this season, and he’s somehow been even more dominant on the road than he has at home. The Athletics have lost three of Ginn’s 10 starts by three or more, including each of his last two in West Sacramento.
Strong Lean: Riley Greene or Spencer Torkelson – Either Player 1+ Home Runs (+135)
Torkelson is on a two-game homer streak and has posted a .913 OPS over his last 20 games, finally demonstrating more of the all-world potential that incentivized the Tigers to pick him first overall in 2020. Greene, meanwhile, has slashed .234/.383/.617 with five homers over his last 14 games. Both young stars are lefties, and Ginn has conceded a 1.057 OPS to southpaws this season.
