This is the opener of a three game series in Cleveland between the Guardians and visiting Tampa Bay Rays.
Ian Seymour is scheduled to pitch for Tampa Bay, while Tanner Bibee is slated to start for Cleveland.
Rays at Guardians prediction, preview
Ian Seymour has pitched his first 23.1 MLB innings this season, and they have been pretty, pretty good. Sure, the sample size is small, but the list of rookie pitchers getting lit up like a Christmas tree right away is loooooong. Seymour is a lefty that only averages 92 mph on the fastball, but the swinging strike rate is a healthy 13.1%. The chase rate is only 25%, though, as the slider has a negative run value. His best pitch is the changeup. The barrel rate is only 3.2% while the strikeout rate is 26.8%. He’s allowed three home runs and walked only eight batters. The 3.86 ERA is supported by the 3.71 FIP.
Seymour has been more effective against righties, but it may just be a case of the small sample sizes. Most of the numbers are better at home, but all three home runs have been served up at home, leading to the 6 FIP, compared to 2.36 on the road.
He has yet to start a game this season and his longest outing was 3.1 innings. In his most recent outing against the Yankees at home, he allowed three home runs and six earned runs in three innings. This will be the first time facing Cleveland this season.
Against left-handed pitching, the Guardians have struck out at the 16th-highest rate while having the 24th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 27th-best in MLB.
Tanner Bibee has posted similar numbers to the prior two seasons. The ERA of 4.62 and FIP of 4.5 are both career highs. One of the main culprits looks to be the long ball, as the 1.45 HR/9 is a career-high. Both the swinging strike and strikeout rates have declined as well. Bibee has given up 18 of the 23 home runs on the road.
In 25 starts, Bibee has allowed more than three earned runs 11 times. He’s allowed four earned runs in four of the last five starts. This will be the first time facing the Rays this season.
The Rays have struck out at the 11th-highest rate against right-handed pitching, while ranking 16th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 10th as well.
As for the bullpens, Tampa Bay has the 13th-lowest FIP, while Cleveland has the third-lowest.
Rays at Guardians pick, best bet
Bibee hasn’t been great recently, allowing four earned runs in four of five starts. I’m expecting him to give up some runs again on Monday, but not get destroyed, meaning that he should pitch around five to six innings before handing things off to the bullpen. I’m expecting a bullpen game from the Rays and the unit has been decent this season.
