TGIF. But also, thank goodness there’s thousands of MLB bets on the DraftKings Sportsbook, because what good is a Friday night without a lil’ action?
Let’s dive into this evening’s packed MLB slate and find a couple winning wagers.
Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Red Sox ML (+153)
After last night’s loss, the Yankees have dropped six in a row to the Red Sox. While I understand that that’s not enough of a reason to make Boston a road favorite on Friday night — it’s not nothing!
The looming sense of dread that New York fans are currently feeling isn’t just about a prolonged losing streak to an historic rival, though. Part of the doom and gloom is tied into the fact that Max Fried hasn’t pitched well over the past seven weeks. Like, at all. Fried has surrendered at least three earned runs in seven of his past eight starts, a span of time where the All-Star lefty is in possession of a 6.80 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP. Fried’s strikeout rate is down, his walk rate up and he’s conceding 1.32 opponent home runs per nine. It’s not ideal, and it’s not guaranteed to get better in a matchup with a Red Sox lineup that ranks in the top five of MLB in average (.263), slugging percentage (.430) and wOBA (.331) against LHPs in 2025.
On the other side of the coin, Brayan Bello is feeling himself at the moment. In fact, Bello’s managed a 2.74 ERA over his last 12 starts — a stretch that began by the RHP tossing seven scoreless innings against the Yankees back on June 15. In a vacuum, is Bello a better pitcher than Fried? Of course not. Yet he’s performed better than Fried lately, and that’s enough to back Boston as a big underdog.
St. Louis Cardinals at Tampa Bay Rays
Game Total: Over 2.5 Home Runs (-120)
Miles Mikolas is pitching at George M. Steinbrenner Field tonight. Need I say more?
There have been 17 home runs hit at the Rays’ temporary home park in the last three games. For the season as a whole, Steinbrenner Field has been the third-easiest place to hit a long ball, according to Baseball Savant’s Park Factors. Now, Mikolas is going to toe the rubber in Tampa on Friday night, which should translate into even more fireworks. Due to fifth percentile marks in both strikeout rate (15.3%) and opponent barrel rate (11.9%), Mikolas has given up a whopping 21 home runs so far in 2025. He’s been particularly susceptible to the long ball when on the road, allowing 2.37 opponent home runs per nine within the split. Translation? Mikolas might get us to this over all by himself.
Still, it’s not like Adrian Houser has looked all that great since the trade deadline, either. In the three starts he’s made for the Rays, Houser has surrendered a .328/.403/.484 slash line to opponents — and that’s without having yet throw a pitch in Tampa’s Single-A pitcher’s nightmare of a stadium. I have a feeling St. Louis will be able to join in on the home run action.
