This year is the year. Maybe? It has to happen for Josh Allen and the Bills at some point. Right?
There are certainly some bettors who think Buffalo will get it done this season. Whether or not the sharps are among those backing Josh Allen and company is another story, though.
Bills Super Bowl Odds
One positive signal for Bills fans is that Buffalo’s preseason Super Bowl odds have shortened year-over-year from +900 to +600. Those +600 odds are tied for the shortest odds on DraftKings Sportsbook with Baltimore’s.
With those odds having the ranking that they do, it should come as no surprise that Buffalo is the most popular Super Bowl champion option on DraftKings Sportsbook, having seen 14% of the bets made in this market. However, those picks have only accounted for 12% of the handle, which is the third-greatest percentage in the market.
That popular-leaning trend continues in the Conference Winner (31% of handle on 33% of bets) and Division Winner (75% of handle on 92% bets). No indication of a sharp lean in any of these markets.
However, things do shift in the Win Total market. But, not by much. Buffalo’s Win Total is up to 11.5 after being set at 10.5 in 2025. The over on that play has seen 91% of the handle and bets.
Josh Allen Futures Splits
After opening with +500 odds in the MVP market, the reigning MVP is +550 to receive the award again this season. But that odds movement, combined with him only garnering four percent of the handle and bets, doesn’t bode well.
For those looking for a pro-Allen future, the splits don’t improve vastly when looking to his season-long player props:
- After opening at 3800.5, Allen’s Regular Season Passing Yards total is 3750.5. Throughout, the over has taken 85% of the handle on 88% of the bets.
- Allen’s Regular Season Rushing Yards total has also experienced movement, but in the opposite direction. After opening at 475.5, it has jumped up to 500.5. All the while, it’s seen 94% of the handle on 99% of the bets.
- Allen’s Regular Season Passing TDs total is 27.5. The under has seen 24% of the handle on 13% of the bets.
- His Regular Season Rushing TDs prop is 10.5. The under has seen 61% of the handle on 29% of the bets.
Allen’s rushing props have the most interesting action of the bunch. While the splits don’t indicate a sharp lean toward the over on his rushing yards prop, that 25-yard increase in the total is promising for those who took the over at 475.5. As for his rushing TDs prop, those under splits are the strongest set of percentages from this bunch.
Other Notable Player Prop Splits
Allen has plenty of his weapons back for 2025 after he and the offense played a big part in the over on their game total hitting in 11 of their 17 regular season games and two of their three playoff games.
Here’s how the props for some of those players look:
- Keon Coleman’s Regular Season Receiving Yards total is 750.5. The under has taken 57% of the handle on 28% of the bets.
- Coleman’s Regular Season Receiving TDs prop is set at 4.5. The over has seen 95% of the handle on 91% of the bets.
- Dalton Kincaid’s Regular Season Receiving Yards total is 575.5. On 91% of the bets, the over has seen 94% of the handle.
- James Cook’s Regular Season Rushing Yards total is 950.5. The under has taken 33% of the bets on 15% of the handle.
- After opening at 9.5, Cook’s Regular Season Rushing TDs total is 8.5. That movement is clearly explained by the splits, with the under seeing 78% of the handle on just eight percent of the bets.
Both sets of splits surrounding Cook are notable, but that last set is staggering. If you’re looking to fade the Bills on DraftKings Sportsbook this season, the Cook splits and Coleman’s receiving yards splits are good places to start.
Betting Trends from 2024 to Consider
While the data above will help you with season-long plays, the following stats produced by Allen, Coleman, Kincaid, Cook, Khalil Shakir and Joshua Palmer in 2024 are instead applicable to gameday player props. (Note: Some of the records below include postseason play.)
- Josh Allen
- Passing Attempts: 12-6 to the under
- Rushing Yards: 11-8 to the under
- Rushing Attempts: 10-8 to the under
- Keon Coleman
- Receptions: 9-6 to the under
- Dalton Kincaid
- Receiving Yards: 10-6 to the under
- Receptions: 11-4 to the under
- James Cook
- Rushing Yards: 11-7 to the over
- Rush Attempts: 11-8 to the under
- Receiving Yards: 11-8 to the under
- Receptions: 11-8 to the under
- Khalil Shakir
- Receptions: 11-7 to the over
- Joshua Palmer (with Chargers)
- Receiving Yards: 10-5 to the over
- Receptions: 9-6 to the under
Use the data you find in this series to place your NFL bets on DraftKings Sportsbook before the season begins.
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