Two top 10 Heavyweights, No. 3 Sergei Pavlovich and No. 6 Waldo Cortes-Acosta, are facing off in the third bout from the top. Pavlovich, 33, is 19-3 and is coming off a win over Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Cortes-Acosta has won five straight fights and recently picked up the most significant victory of his career against Serghei Spivac.
Saturday’s UFC Fight Night from Shanghai, China, airs live on ESPN+ at 6:00 a.m. ET. Here is my best bet for this bout between Pavlovich and Cortes-Acosta.
Exact Method of Victory: Decision (+140)
This is an intriguing matchup because Coretes-Acosta is riding a big win streak, while Pavlovich comes off an uninspiring win. Saying all that, Pavlovich is a -258 favorite in this matchup with Cortes-Acosta being a +210 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Pavlovich is coming off two fights that ended via decision, while three of Cortes-Acosta’s previous four wins were by decision. Although Pavlovich was on a six-fight knockout streak from 2019 to 2023, he has lacked the aggressive and intense mentality that he showcased during that period.
Taking this fight to end by decision at +140 is great value since Cortes-Acosta has never been finished, while six of his last eight bouts have ended via the judges’ scorecards. Pavlovich has the edge in power, but has failed to be consistent, as the opposite is true for Cortes-Acosta. Cortes-Acosta averages nearly six significant strikes per minute while having a 55 percent defense rate. With the contrast of styles, it could lead to this three-round heavyweight bout going the distance.
