As the WNBA season enters the home stretch, the New York Liberty’s magic number to clinch a playoff spot is down to five. Their opponents tonight, the Chicago Sky, have already been eliminated from postseason contention, leaving five teams to vie for three spots, with the sixth-seeded Indiana Fever leading the 10th-seeded Washington Mystics by three games.
New York set Barclays Center afire two nights ago with a win over the league-leading Minnesota Lynx, so the atmosphere should be good again tonight when the game tips off at 7 p.m. ET.
The Liberty are 15-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook (-1450 Moneyline), with the total set at 163 points, and Sky are +850 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the clash and offer a prediction.
Sky at Liberty prediction, pick
Though Breanna Stewart and Napheesa Collier’s injuries took the shine off of New York’s matchup with the Lynx, the Finals rematch certainly had a playoff-quality atmosphere, and for the Liberty to avoid getting swept in the season series was a major victory. The X-factor was 2021 MVP and 2024 Finals MVP Jonquel Jones, who had her third 20-point double-double of the season, finishing with 22 points and 10 boards while making three of her five three-point attempts. Sabrina Ionescu sealed the deal with an audacious 30-foot three-pointer from the right wing, swishing it despite an aggressive closeout by Maria Kliundikova that was eventually ruled a flagrant foul.
Since Stewart hobbled off the court with a bone bruise after just three minutes on July 26, New York has stayed afloat thanks to a true team effort. Jones has averaged 15.8 points and 7.8 rebounds per game on 54-50-76 shooting splits, and while Ionescu has been inefficient, 19.5 points per game is 19.5 points per game. New addition Emma Meesseman, making her return to the league after three seasons with Turkish side Fenerbahçe, has been brilliant, averaging 15.0 points per game on 54-64-91 shooting splits. Natasha Cloud has scored double-digit points in six of her last seven games, and Leonie Fiebich has continued to be lights-out from deep. The Liberty will need Stewart back before the playoffs — they have a negative net rating since her injury and are 10.4 points per 100 possessions better with her on the court — but the tools are there for survival.
Chicago, meanwhile, couldn’t have asked for Angel Reese back at a better time. The two-time All-Star had missed three weeks with a back injury, and in that span, her team went just 1-6, dropping to 1-9 without her overall this season. The Sky have been by far the league’s worst team since the All-Star break, going just 1-11 and posting a negative-20.9 net rating. Reese won’t fix all the woes — Chicago has still been outscored by 12.7 points per 100 possessions with her on the court — but her elite rebounding and solid interior defense should help. In her return on Tuesday, she scored 19 points and grabbed seven rebounds, although her defense wasn’t great: the Seattle Storm shot 14-for-20 within five feet with her on the court. She could have her hands full with Jones, who’s shot 66.0% within five feet since Stewart’s injury.
Reese should still be able to make an impact offensively; without Stewart, the Liberty have allowed the most rebounds, the second-most second-chance points, and the fifth-most points in the paint. However, she’ll need a lot of help to lead the Sky to an upset, because New York has been extremely stingy everywhere else on the floor, allowing bottom-five percentages from five-to-nine feet, 10-to-14 feet, 15-to-19 feet, and 20-to-24 feet. With Ariel Atkins shooting just 33.3% from deep and averaging only 10.3 points per game in the six games since returning from an injury of her own, I can’t see that happening. Still, Reese’s team has lost by 15 or more points just eight times in 24 games with her on the floor, and this Stewart-less Liberty team hasn’t won a game by more than 10 points yet. Give me Chicago and the points.
