In what has been a roller coaster season for the New York Yankees, a recent hot stretch has kept the AL East title somewhat alive. The Toronto Blue Jays, up five games with 35 left in the season, have the upper hand, but New York has won each of its last four games to stay within striking distance and should have a good chance of picking up a fifth tonight in the second game of a three-game road set against the banged-up Tampa Bay Rays.
The first pitch will be at 7:35 p.m. ET, with Drew Rasmussen taking the mound for the Rays. Cam Schlittler will hurl the first pitch for the Yankees shortly after.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays prediction, preview
New York enjoyed quite the power stroke last night at its spring-training ballpark, recording back-to-back-to-back bombs in the first inning en route to a nine-homer performance overall. Three Yankees had multi-homer games, including light-hitting Jose Caballero, acquired from Tampa Bay at the trade deadline. Carlos Rodón out-dueled Shane Baz and the bullpen gave up just one run in three innings, a promising development given its struggles as of late. It was the Rays’ worst pitching performance of a rough second half; since the All-Star break, they’ve gone just 11-18, with the seventh-worst ERA and the worst OPS in the league.
New York shouldn’t go deep quite as many times tonight against Rasmussen, who is much better at avoiding the long ball than his current teammates Baz and Ryan Pepiot and his former teammate Zack Littell. In fact, Rasmussen has conceded just 11 bombs in 117.2 innings, pitching to a 2.60 ERA and making his first All-Star team. He’s been especially stellar in the last two months, recording a 2.08 ERA across his last 30.1 innings while walking four and striking out 28. Rasmussen does give up lots of hard hits, which could be a problem in a hot climate against the Bronx Bombers, but he makes up for it by producing grounders at at an 83rd-percentile clip.
Rasmussen certainly has the pitching edge over Schlittler, who has posted a 3.94 ERA (5.24 FIP) in his first 29.2 innings as a pro. To be fair, he did produce his finest career start in his most recent outing last Wednesday, hurling five innings of two-hit, one-run ball, but that outing came against a decimated Minnesota Twins team that sold off basically the entire roster at the trade deadline. Advanced stats aren’t kind to the flamethrower; though his fastball velocity sits in the 95th percentile, it’s been his only above-average pitch by run value, and he sits below the league median in 11 of 13 Statcast categories. He’ll need to rely on his team’s above-average defense in order to limit the damage tonight.
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 8.5 (-105)
Rasmussen’s form is both real and sustainable, given that he’s had a sub-three ERA in five of his six pro seasons, and he’s on six days’ rest for the first time all season, so he should be able to go deep into the game. I’m not a believer in Schlittler, but Tampa Bay’s offense is awful right now.
Strong Lean: Cam Schlittler U1.5 Walks (+100)
Schlittler has issued two or more walks in all but one of his career starts, but the Rays have walked the sixth-fewest times of any team since the All-Star break. Plus, Schlittler ranks above-average at generating chases, and Tampa Bay chases at a high rate. It also doesn’t whiff a ton, which should mean more balls in play.
