Let’s wrap a few midweek series up before we get to the last of August’s baseball sprint. I’ve already written up the Nationals vs. Mets game, and will have more game write-ups soon up for your viewing pleasure. Erstwhile, based on my preliminary research, here are my three favorite baseball bets for tonight’s slate, separate from my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Cal Raleigh to hit a home run (+235) at Phillies
Raleigh’s power stick is off the charts: he’s batting .249 with 47 homers this season, translating to an eye-popping 157 wRC+. In other words, he’s creating runs at 57% above league average. Raleigh faces lefty Jesús Luzardo (11-6, 4.21 ERA) who “has struggled at times with command” and has surrendered plenty of damage to right-handed hitters. That’s welcome news when one righty in Seattle’s lineup has already tallied 14 steals this year and pounds mistakes for homers. By park, Seattle’s home park is pretty neutral for power, but even on the road Raleigh stays hot. He just went deep in last game’s Little League Classic and looks locked in. For context, the Mariners lead MLB in batted-ball authority. Raleigh alone has nearly as many homers as many entire teams. Put it bluntly: Castillo or Houston’s bullpen gives up homers to Washington’s hitters, and Luzardo isn’t much better. We can’t pass on Raleigh at +275 to leave the yard. His contact rate is solid, his chase rate low, and he barrels pitches at a huge clip. I’m wheeling and dealing on this one.
Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+110) at Rockies
Ohtani is literally the best hitter alive and the Vegas odds know it (+110). But I see even more value here. He’s slashing .284 with 44 homers, 83 RBI and 120 runs, and checks in at a mind-blowing 189 wRC+. That means he’s creating runs at nearly twice the league rate. It’s August 20th in Coors Field—altitude heaven—and last night Ohtani already went deep against Colorado. He couldn’t have drawn a softer matchup than Tanner Gordon, who has a ghastly 7.98 ERA this year. The Rockies’ pitching staff has nothing left. Every mistake Ohtani sees will leave the park. Ohtani’s ISO and xwOBA both scream power, and Coors adds another 10% to fly balls. There’s really no downside to backing Ohtani here. Yes, it’s short odds, but I’ll trust this talent on this field. The line may not reflect it, but his stat line does: he already has more runs than anybody on the team and he’s chasing the home-run crown. Given all that, I’m locking in Ohtani anytime HR (+110).
Zach Neto to hit a home run (+330) vs. Reds
The Angels’ rookie has been scorching lately. Over his last eight games he’s launched four homers and now carries 21 homers and 74 runs on the year while hitting .269. Those numbers translate to a strong OPS and wRC+ (well above league norm). Neto has elite plate discipline and even a bit of wheels (22 steals). He looks locked in. Tonight he faces Nick Martinez (10-9, 4.73 ERA), a righty who’s been especially prone to serving up long balls this year. Martinez just can’t keep it in the park. With Neto’s recent power surge and knack for running the count, any mistake will be punished. The Angels’ lineup aside (they’re only .233/.306/.408 collectively this year), Neto has shown he can hit anyone. This is a huge plus-odds spot (+330) to ride his hot streak. Weave in the heat: statcast has Neto among the league leaders in barreled balls this month. The formula is ripe: an on-fire bat vs a homer-prone arm. I’m all over Neto anytime HR (+330), no hesitation.
