On Wednesday night, Major League Baseball has 10 games lined up to fill up the evening with plenty of excitement as playoff races start to take shape. This week’s series have already had plenty of action with home runs flying out of ballparks across the country with warmer temps and thinner pitching staffs. With 20 teams in action under the lights, DraftKings Sportsbook has plenty of juicy home run props to consider, including some at Coors Field, of course. After looking at the matchups, environments, odds and current form of the players on the board on Wednesday night, my favorite home run props are from Juan Soto, Lawrence Butler and Freddie Freeman.
Just a quick reminder before we step to the plate and swing for the fences with these home run props — all home run props are long-shot bets. Even the best home run hitters are more likely not to hit a home run in any single game, so home run props are never “safe” picks. While there are some key indicators to consider that can point us in the right direction, these picks remain volatile plays.
Home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, but they shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re uncertain. What makes home run props exciting is that long odds yield big returns when they do smash. I typically play home run props in round robins at a small unit size, boosting the ceiling even higher if multiple home run props hit on any given day.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these three home run props for Wednesday.
Best HR Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Juan Soto to record 1+ home runs (+350)
Soto and the Mets have won three straight and take on Brad Lord and the Nationals in Washington on Wednesday.
Soto homered in the seventh inning for an insurance run on Tuesday, giving him 31 blasts on the season.
Soto has hit 24 of his 31 homers off righties and 16 of his 31 homers on the road. He has a six homers in his last 11 games with a 53.3% hard hit rate and a 23.3% barrel rate. Over those 11 games, he has an average exit velocity of 94.4 miles per hour, raising his average on the season to 94.1 miles per hour, the fifth-highest in the majors.
Soto still has favorable odds for his home run props, though, at +350. He’ll be in a good matchup against young righty Brad Lord, who has given up seven homers on the year. Lefties have five of those seven homers, even though they only have 46% of plate appearances against him with a .328 wOBA.
Lord moved to the starting rotation five games ago, and has gone 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA and 3.50 FIP while giving up two homers in 26 innings. He isn’t a dream matchup, but with how well Soto is swinging it and how lefties have produced against Lord this year, I’m ready to back Soto’s home run props at these odds in one of the early games on Wedensday night’s scoreboard.
Lawrence Butler to record 1+ home runs (+400)
The Athletics are in such a great matchup this Wednesday, it’s impossible to pass up their home run props. I highlighted the ever-impressive Nick Kurtz in my MLB DFS Picks of the day, and I also love his home run props at +245.
To add some extra juice, though, let’s go for an even bigger swing in this post and target Lawrence Butler, whose odds check in at +400 to start the day.
Butler has 17 homers on the season, with his most recent coming on Sunday at home against the Angels.
Butler has four homers since the All-Star break and two in his last five games. Over his last 10 games, he has a 45% hard hit rate and an average exit velocity over 90 miles per hour.
Butler has hit 14 of his 17 homers off righties, and he’ll be in a great spot against Twins’ righty Bailey Ober on Wednesday. Ober has given up 24 homers in 20 starts this season, including 18 homers in his last nine starts while going 0-6 with a 7.15 ERA and 13.8% barrel rate against him.
Lefties like Butler (and Kurtz) have hit 15 of the 24 homers Ober has given up this year while hitting .283 with a .350 wOBA.
Both Butler and Kurtz have a great chance to go yard in Target Field. While Butler does bring more risk, he also brings more reward with his odds so much more favorable on Wednesday night in Minneapolis.
Freddie Freeman to record 1+ home runs (+275)
We’ll wrap up our home run props for this Wednesday with a stop at Coors Field. Shohei Ohtani is on the mound getting the start for the Dodgers, and he also has the shortest home run odds of any player on the board at just +115. Those are some of the wildest, shortest home run props I’ve seen all season for any hitter–never mind one that is also the starting pitcher!
Instead of Shohei, though, I’m spotlighting Freeman to get more favorable odds for his home run props in this matchup.
Freeman has been raking since the All-Star break:
He has 15 homers on the season and is hitting .302 with .369 wOBA. Five of those homers have come in his last 18 games, while he has hit .333 with a 52.8% hard hit rate and .436 wOBA.
In his very recent game log, he homered on Sunday against the Padres and had two hits in each of the first two games of the Dodgers’ stop at Coors Field. He has three barrels and five hard hit balls in his last four games with an average exit velocity over 92 miles per hour.
Freeman has 10 career homers and a .296 career batting average in 58 games at Coors Field. He and the Dodgers’ other lefties get a great matchup against the Rockies’ Tanner Gordon. Gordon is 3-5 on the year in eight starts, but has a 7.98 ERA and 4.34 FIP. Lefties have hit four of the five homers he has allowed this year.
Since he’s hitting the ball so well, Freeman is a solid option to round out Wednesday’s home run props as the Dodgers continue their four-game set at Coors Field before heading to San Diego this upcoming weekend for another huge NL West showdown.
