This is the second game of a three-game series in Miami between the Marlins and visiting St. Louis Cardinals.
Michael McGreevy is scheduled to pitch for St. Louis while Edward Cabrera is slated to start for Miami.
Cardinals at Marlins prediction, preview
Michael McGreevy has a underwhelming 13.3% strikeout rate through 51 innings this season. The walk rate is only 3.3%, though, and the barrel rate is 6.3%. He’s also allowed only seven home runs. While the ERA is 4.41, the FIP is down at 3.57. The fastball averages 92.9 mph, the swinging strike rate is only 7.7% and the chase rate is 23.6%.
Lefties have hit three of the four home runs allowed. Other than that, most of the numbers are similar to what he’s done against righties. McGreevy has been site neutral.
McGreevy has allowed more than three earned runs four times in nine outings. He’s gone at least six innings in each of the last three starts. This will be the first time facing Miami this season.
Against right-handed pitching, the Marlins have struck out at the 24th-highest rate while having the 15th-best ISO. Their wOBA is 10th-best in MLB.
Edward Cabrera looks like the light has been flicked on, as things look to be clicking now after an inconsistent four seasons in MLB. With a 96.8 mph fastball, he’s still striking out batters at a 25.5% clip. The swinging strike rate is 12.6% while the chase rate is 29.7%. The walk rate of 8.1% isn’t great, but it looks like manna from the heavens when you look at the 12%, 15.2%, 11.3% and 15.8% walk rates he posted in the past. Cabrera has also allowed only 12 home runs in 113.1 innings. The ERA of 3.34 is supported by the 3.57 FIP.
Cabrera has had slightly more difficulty against lefties, as the K-BB% is 14.2% compared to 21.1% against righties. The FIP is 4.15 against lefties. Cabrera has been site neutral.
Cabrera has allowed over three earned runs four times this season, with one of those in his most recent outing in Cleveland where he allowed five earned runs in 5.1 innings. Cabrera has gone at least six innings only six times in 21 starts, but those have all come in the last few months. He faced St. Louis four starts ago on the road, going six innings, walking three, striking out four and allowing one earned run on four hits.
The Cardinals have struck out at the 25th-highest rate against right-handed pitching while ranking 26th in ISO. Their wOBA ranks 22nd as well.
As for the bullpens, St. Louis has the second-lowest FIP, while Miami has the 19th-lowest.
Cardinals at Marlins pick, best bet
The numbers say that McGreevy has been solid and could remain pitching well, but the inability to miss bats is scary. And it’s not like he’s limiting hard contact either. I like where Cabrera is at and think he neutralizes the Cardinals offense at home.
