Out in the desert tonight, the Arizona Diamondbacks (60-65) welcome the Cleveland Guardians (63-60) to open a three-game interleague series.
Here’s a Diamondbacks vs. Guardians prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s nightcap.
Diamondbacks vs. Guardians prediction, preview
The Diamondbacks have found themselves fighting to stay relevant this season despite injuries to key pitchers and somewhat of a seller’s mentality back at the Trade Deadline. They’re 13-15 since the All-Star Game and sit fourth among the NL West, but they’ve still maintained a pretty respectable record near the .500 mark nonetheless. However, they just suffered three losses to the lowly Colorado Rockies and are surely looking to get back on the right foot.
Since the ASG, Arizona ranks just 18th in scoring with 125 runs despite holding the fifth-best batting average (.252) and 10th-best OPS (.755) over that span. They’ve bashed plenty of homers with 23, the second-most over the last two weeks, even despite trading away a couple of their best bats. While they aren’t drawing many walks, the Diamondbacks do have the eighth-fewest strikeouts as well. If the pitching could perform at a better level, they’d probably have strung together at least a few more wins. Alas, a 4.58 ERA as a staff won’t cut it.
As for the Guardians, they’ve surprisingly turned their season around over the last month. They were just 46-49 at the All-Star break but are 17-14 since that point and pushed above the .500 mark into the AL Wild Card picture. Coming off a sweep at the hands of the Atlanta Braves does hurt, but Cleveland remains just 3.5 games back of the New York Yankees for the final Wild Card spot.
This team falls eighth in scoring since the ASG with 135 runs, though the offense largely ranks middle-of-the-pack with the 13th-best average (.245) and 16th-best OPS (.725). They’ve hit 31 homers over that sample, which ranks 20th, while they’re 12th in walks drawn and 10th in strikeouts. Cleveland’s pitching staff comes in at 14th in ERA (3.89) as well as 22nd in WHIP (1.31), so they seem to be scrapping for many of their wins at the moment with some close games.
Diamondbacks vs. Guardians pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Diamondbacks as -120 Moneyline favorites in Monday’s game. The Guardians aren’t far behind at -101 on the Moneyline with the run total set at nine.
Two right-handers go toe-to-toe on the mound tonight. For Arizona, it’s Zac Gallen (5.31 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 131 SO), who’s gone 9-12 thus far in 25 games. Cleveland brings out Gavin Williams (3.38 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 127 SO) with a 7-4 record across his 24 starts.
Williams has largely overperformed his xERA of 4.23, and he’s a tad below league-average in hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity. That may prove problematic against this Diamondbacks lineup, plus he’s in the fifth percentile in BB%. However, Gallen doesn’t fall in the 50th percentile or better in a single metric aside from extension and ground-ball percentage, so he’s a vulnerable pitcher beyond just the box score. I do favor the Guardians in this matchup, but I’m taking 3+ earned runs allowed for Gallen instead of a game line.
Best bet: Zac Gallen 3+ earned runs allowed (-105)
Click the odds on this bet to tail!
